Switzerland Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
FC Basel 1893
vs
FC Lugano
1 – 3 Full time
| 2′ | Dereck Moncada | ||
| 45′ | Jonas OmlinMirko Salvi | ||
| 45′ | Ludwig ThorellXherdan Shaqiri | ||
| 45′ | Jonas harderAbemly Meto Silu Metinho | ||
| 47′ | Abemly Meto Silu Metinho | ||
| 59′ | Yanis Cimignani | ||
| 59′ | Yanis Cimignani | ||
| 61′ | Uran Bislimi | ||
| 63′ | Kazeem OlaigbePhilip Otele | ||
| 63′ | Dereck MoncadaAlbian Ajeti | ||
| 70′ | Xherdan Shaqiri | ||
| 72′ | Anto Grgic | ||
| 79′ | Daniel Dos Santos CorreiaAhmed Kendouci | ||
| 79′ | Renato SteffenElias Pihlstrom | ||
| 81′ | Ahmed Kendouci | ||
| 84′ | Asane SowAaron Malouda | ||
| 85′ | Uran Bislimi | ||
| 87′ | Elias Pihlstrom | ||
| 90′ | Uran BislimiGjan Ajdin | ||
| 90′ | Yanis CimignaniJoao Victor Schlickmann Carbone |
FC Basel 1893
29%
Draw
24%
FC Lugano
47%
Match stats
| 5 | Shots | 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 391 | Accurate passes | 485 |
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano
| Probability | FC Basel 1893 | Draw | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.7% | 18.4% | 66.0% |
| Market | 33.3% | 26.2% | 40.5% |
| Final | 28.9% | 24.2% | 46.9% |
| Edge | -17.6% | -7.8% | +25.5% |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +25.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
75%
No goals
3%
FC Basel 1893 and FC Lugano expected goals
FC Basel 1893
1.26
FC Lugano
2.64
Total expected goals: 3.90
FC Basel 1893 and FC Lugano attack and defence ratings
FC Basel 1893
Attack
1.14 +14%
Defence
1.10 +10%
FC Lugano
Attack
1.55 +55%
Defence
0.61 -39%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano: result vs prediction
FC Basel 1893 1 – 3 FC Lugano
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 46.9% | 2.13 | +25.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Basel 1893 | 28.9% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| FC Lugano | 46.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.2% |
| No | 32.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 46.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 33.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-3 | 7.8% | |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano stats
FC Basel 1893 and FC Lugano recent form
| FC Basel 1893 |
LDWWWL |
| FC Lugano |
WWDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Basel 1893 and FC Lugano going into this match
FC Basel 1893 record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Lugano record
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2FC Basel 1893 wins
3Draws
5FC Lugano wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | FC Lugano | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League | 4-0 |
| 2026-02-15 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | FC Lugano | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-10 | FC Lugano | FC Basel 1893 | Super League | 2-5 |
| 2025-04-06 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Lugano | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-19 | FC Lugano | FC Basel 1893 | Super League | 2-2 |
| 2024-07-27 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Lugano | Super League | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-02 | FC Lugano | FC Basel 1893 | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-28 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Lugano | Schweizer Cup | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.1%, draw 25.5%, away 41.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.20 |
| 1xBet | 2.81 | 3.54 | 2.33 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.70 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.65 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.85 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 2.80 | 3.54 | 2.31 |
| Pinnacle | 2.96 | 3.74 | 2.34 |
| Unibet | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.80 ▲ +0.05
X
3.57 ▼ -0.10
2
2.30 ▲ +0.06
11 snapshots recorded, from .