Switzerland Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
FC Luzern
vs
FC Basel 1893
2 – 4 Full time
| 1′ | Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb | ||
| 4′ | Žan Celar | ||
| 42′ | Philip Otele | ||
| 52′ | Bung Hua Freimann | ||
| 56′ | Xherdan Shaqiri | ||
| 57′ | Xherdan Shaqiri | ||
| 58′ | Kevin Ruegg | ||
| 60′ | Oscar Kabwit TshikombBongeli Faveurdi Beenga | ||
| 60′ | Mio ZimmermannLucas Manuel Silva Ferreira | ||
| 60′ | Tyron OwusuAurelio Oehlers | ||
| 61′ | Philip OteleAaron Malouda | ||
| 61′ | Kevin RueggClément Michelin | ||
| 66′ | Xherdan Shaqiri | ||
| 72′ | Xherdan Shaqirigiacomo koloto | ||
| 72′ | Jonas harderLudwig Thorell | ||
| 72′ | Daniel MikołajewskiNando Toggenburger | ||
| 83′ | Matteo Di GiustoLars Villiger | ||
| 84′ | Lars Villiger | ||
| 85′ | Žan CelarBecir Omeragic |
FC Luzern
47%
Draw
24%
FC Basel 1893
29%
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 277 | Accurate passes | 363 |
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893
| Probability | FC Luzern | Draw | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.6% | 21.4% | 25.0% |
| Market | 44.8% | 24.4% | 30.7% |
| Final | 47.0% | 23.7% | 29.3% |
| Edge | +8.7% | -3.0% | -5.8% |
Why FC Luzern
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.55.
- The market prices FC Luzern below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
90%
3+ goals
74%
No goals
3%
FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 expected goals
FC Luzern
2.29
FC Basel 1893
1.55
Total expected goals: 3.84
FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 attack and defence ratings
FC Luzern
Attack
1.08 +8%
Defence
0.91 -9%
FC Basel 1893
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893: result vs prediction
FC Luzern 2 – 4 FC Basel 1893
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Luzern | 47.0% | 2.13 | +8.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Luzern | 47.0% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| FC Basel 1893 | 29.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.5% |
| No | 28.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Luzern win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.7% |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 stats
FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 recent form
| FC Luzern |
DWDWWD |
| FC Basel 1893 |
LLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 going into this match
FC Luzern record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Basel 1893 record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3FC Luzern wins
3Draws
4FC Basel 1893 wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | FC Luzern | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League | 4-2 |
| 2025-12-17 | FC Luzern | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-28 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Luzern | Switzerland Super League | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-24 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Luzern | Super League | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | FC Luzern | FC Basel 1893 | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-06 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Luzern | Super League | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | FC Luzern | FC Basel 1893 | Super League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-05 | FC Basel 1893 | FC Luzern | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | FC Luzern | FC Basel 1893 | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-17 | FC Luzern | FC Basel 1893 | Super League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Luzern vs FC Basel 1893 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.1%, draw 24.2%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.88 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.88 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 4.10 | 3.11 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.34 | 2.67 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.07 ▲ +0.02
X
3.80 ▼ -0.25
2
3.02 ▲ +0.03
13 snapshots recorded, from .