Switzerland Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
FC Lugano
vs
BSC Young Boys
2 – 2 Full time
| 2′ | Daniel Dos Santos Correia | ||
| 21′ | Renato SteffenElias Pihlstrom | ||
| 28′ | Samuel Essende | ||
| 45′ | Christian Fassnacht | ||
| 45′ | David von BallmoosFelix Gebhard | ||
| 45′ | Isaac SchmidtLewin Blum | ||
| 49′ | Lars Lukas Mai | ||
| 61′ | Sandro Lauper | ||
| 62′ | Antonios Papadopoulos | ||
| 65′ | Alan VirginiusBahereba Guirassy | ||
| 67′ | Lars Lukas MaiAlbian Ajeti | ||
| 68′ | Yanis CimignaniEzdjan Alijoski | ||
| 75′ | Daniel Dos Santos Correia | ||
| 80′ | Albian Ajeti | ||
| 81′ | Samuel EssendeMamadou Kaly·Sene | ||
| 86′ | Sandro LauperMoritz Jenz | ||
| 86′ | Armin GigovicDominik Pech | ||
| 89′ | Dereck MoncadaBeckham Castro | ||
| 90′ | Marvin Keller |
FC Lugano
48%
Draw
22%
BSC Young Boys
30%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 59 | Possession % | 41 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 486 | Accurate passes | 314 |
FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys
| Probability | FC Lugano | Draw | BSC Young Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.4% | 16.4% | 18.2% |
| Market | 42.3% | 23.9% | 33.8% |
| Final | 48.1% | 22.0% | 29.9% |
| Edge | +23.1% | -7.5% | -15.7% |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.10 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +23.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
99%
2+ goals
96%
3+ goals
86%
No goals
1%
FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys expected goals
FC Lugano
3.10
BSC Young Boys
1.71
Total expected goals: 4.82
FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys attack and defence ratings
FC Lugano
Attack
1.58 +58%
Defence
0.61 -39%
BSC Young Boys
Attack
1.80 +80%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys: result vs prediction
FC Lugano 2 – 2 BSC Young Boys
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 48.1% | 2.08 | +23.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 48.1% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| BSC Young Boys | 29.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.5% |
| No | 21.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 47.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 34.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.9% |
| 2-1 | 6.7% | |
| 3-2 | 5.9% |
FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys stats
FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys recent form
| FC Lugano |
WWWDWW |
| BSC Young Boys |
DWDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Lugano and BSC Young Boys going into this match
FC Lugano record
- They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
BSC Young Boys record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 3.5 at home.
FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4FC Lugano wins
3Draws
3BSC Young Boys wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | FC Lugano | BSC Young Boys | Switzerland Super League | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-22 | BSC Young Boys | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-21 | FC Lugano | BSC Young Boys | Switzerland Super League | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | BSC Young Boys | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-24 | FC Lugano | BSC Young Boys | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | BSC Young Boys | FC Lugano | Super League | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-10 | BSC Young Boys | FC Lugano | Super League | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | FC Lugano | BSC Young Boys | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-11 | BSC Young Boys | FC Lugano | Super League | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-10 | FC Lugano | BSC Young Boys | Super League | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Lugano vs BSC Young Boys odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 23.9%, away 33.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.94 | 2.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.85 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 4.00 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.94 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 4.26 | 2.76 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 3.63 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.20 ▼ -0.26
X
3.90 ▲ +0.07
2
2.75 ▲ +0.29
5 snapshots recorded, from .