Garuda Lions
Today
Switzerland Super League · Full time ·Matchday 4

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen

4 – 1 Full time

4′Beckham Castro
14′Elias Pihlstrom
16′Behruzjon Karimov
28′Elias Pihlstrom
32′Nevio Scherrer
36′Behruzjon Karimov
40′Lukas Daschner
45′Nevio ScherrerAndrin Hunziker
45′Lukas DaschnerBetim Fazliji
45′Carlo BoukhalfaHugo Vandermersch
45′Behruzjon KarimovMattia Zanotti
47′Elias Pihlstrom
55′Beckham CastroAlbian Ajeti
58′Uran Bislimi
61′Joel RuizEnoch owusu
67′Aliou BaldeDiego Besio
68′Daniel Dos Santos CorreiaAhmed Kendouci
71′Chima Okoroji
74′Andrin Hunziker
77′Albian Ajeti
82′Yanis CimignaniDamian Kelvin
82′Uran BislimiHannes Delcroix

AIL Arena, LuganoReferee: L. Cibelli

FC Lugano 53%
Draw 22%
FC ST. Gallen 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 21
8 Shots on target 5
49 Possession % 51
2 Corners 8
11 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 4
4 Saves 4
329 Accurate passes 342

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC LuganoDrawFC ST. Gallen
Model74.1%15.3%10.6%
Market46.5%24.0%29.5%
Final53.4%21.8%24.8%
Edge+27.6%-8.6%-19.0%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Lugano

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.09.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +27.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Lugano ↓ / FC ST. Gallen → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 2 8% 8% 3 8% 8% 4+ 11% 12% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 2%

FC Lugano and FC ST. Gallen expected goals

FC Lugano 2.92
FC ST. Gallen 1.09

Total expected goals: 4.01

FC Lugano and FC ST. Gallen attack and defence ratings

FC Lugano

Attack 1.53 +53%
Defence 0.66 -34%

FC ST. Gallen

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen: result vs prediction

FC Lugano 4 – 1 FC ST. Gallen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Switzerland Super League

Before and after this match

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Lugano 53.4% 1.87 +27.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.3% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.3% 1.58 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.2% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 FC Lugano win 55.1% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Lugano53.4%
Draw21.8%
FC ST. Gallen24.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.3%
Under 2.523.7%
Both teams to scoreYes63.3%
No36.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.2%
12 (either side)78.2%
X2 (draw or away)46.6%
Handicap -1FC Lugano win55.1%
Push (exactly one goal)19.0%
Loss25.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.4%
3-18.2%
2-07.8%

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen stats

FC Lugano and FC ST. Gallen recent form

newest first
FC Lugano DWWWDW
FC ST. Gallen LWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Lugano and FC ST. Gallen going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Lugano record

  • They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.5 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

FC ST. Gallen record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2FC Lugano wins 3Draws 5FC ST. Gallen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSwitzerland Super League1-2
2026-03-17FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSwitzerland Super League1-1
2025-11-26FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSwitzerland Super League1-3
2025-09-13FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSwitzerland Super League1-0
2025-04-13FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSuper League1-1
2025-02-05FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSuper League2-1
2024-09-01FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSuper League1-1
2024-05-04FC LuganoFC ST. GallenSuper League0-1
2024-03-09FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSuper League2-3
2024-01-28FC ST. GallenFC LuganoSuper League1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 23.9%, away 29.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.02 3.88 3.15
888Sport 2.00 3.80 3.10
Bet365 2.00 4.00 3.20
BetVictor 1.95 3.80 3.13
Betano 2.02 3.95 3.10
Betfair 2.00 3.90 3.20
Marathonbet 2.00 3.88 3.15
Pinnacle 2.06 4.13 3.27
SBO 1.87 3.46 3.04
William Hill 2.00 3.80 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 —
X 3.88 ▲ +0.08
2 3.15 ▲ +0.02

49 snapshots recorded, from .