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UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar

1 – 0 Full time

22′Trai Hume
30′Omar Alderete
38′Ayoub Oufkir
46′A. OufkirWeslley Patati
52′O. AldereteD. Ballard
59′K. SmitV. Byskov
64′Weslley Patati
66′E. Le Fee
67′T. HumeT. Meunier
67′M. FofanaB. Brobbey
67′W. IsidorN. Angulo
72′Nordi Mukiele
76′J. ClasieD. Kwakman
83′L. SchoutenC. Stengs
83′M. MeerdinkJ. Hornkamp
84′K. DansoC. Rigg

Stadium of Light, SunderlandReferee: J. Pignard

Sunderland 56%
Draw 22%
AZ Alkmaar 22%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 2
45 Possession % 55
12 Corners 5
14 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 4
299 Accurate passes 405

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySunderlandDrawAZ Alkmaar
Model32.4%24.3%43.3%
Market63.8%21.3%15.0%
Final55.9%22.0%22.0%
Edge-31.4%+3.1%+28.3%

Confidence: Medium

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sunderland ↓ / AZ Alkmaar → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 10% 9% 5% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar expected goals

Sunderland 1.57
AZ Alkmaar 1.84

Total expected goals: 3.41

Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar attack and defence ratings

Sunderland

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.99 -1%

AZ Alkmaar

Attack 1.62 +62%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar: result vs prediction

Sunderland 1 – 0 AZ Alkmaar

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sunderland 55.9% 1.79 -31.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.3% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.6% 1.48 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.0% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.8% 1.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sunderland55.9%
Draw22.0%
AZ Alkmaar22.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%
Both teams to scoreYes67.6%
No32.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.0%
12 (either side)78.0%
X2 (draw or away)44.1%
Handicap -1Sunderland win15.9%
Push (exactly one goal)16.3%
Loss67.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.5%
1-28.8%
2-17.5%

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar stats

Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar recent form

newest first
Sunderland LWDWLW
AZ Alkmaar DWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.1%, draw 21.7%, away 15.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.70 3.95 4.40
1xBet 1.50 4.66 6.65
888Sport 1.67 3.90 4.60
Bet365 1.48 4.50 6.25
BetVictor 1.45 4.40 6.50
Betano 1.55 4.55 6.40
Betfair 1.47 4.40 6.50
Dafabet 1.72 4.00 4.60
Marathonbet 1.50 4.65 6.65
Pinnacle 1.51 4.64 6.32
SBO 1.55 3.62 4.45
Unibet 1.68 4.00 4.70
William Hill 1.44 4.20 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▼ -0.18
X 4.50 ▲ +0.54
2 6.40 ▲ +1.80

14 snapshots recorded, from .