AC Milan
vs
Benfica
0 – 2 Full time
| 11′ | Strahinja Pavlović | ||
| 16′ | D. Lukebakio | ||
| 26′ | Souffian El Karouani | ||
| 37′ | Jhon Durán | ||
| 46′ | F. TerraccianoM. Gila | ||
| 46′ | O. HutchinsonC. Pulisic | ||
| 53′ | J. Kaminski | ||
| 57′ | D. BartesaghiA. Saelemaekers | ||
| 57′ | A. CisseD. Moreira | ||
| 70′ | F. AursnesL. Barreiro | ||
| 70′ | G. SudakovG. Prestianni | ||
| 73′ | A. JashariA. Rabiot | ||
| 77′ | Daniel Banjaqui | ||
| 80′ | J. DuranV. Pavlidis | ||
| 80′ | J. KaminskiA. Schjelderup | ||
| 84′ | Leandro Barreiro | ||
| 88′ | S. El KarouaniS. Dahl | ||
| 90′ | Vangelis Pavlidis |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 521 | Accurate passes | 324 |
AC Milan vs Benfica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Milan vs Benfica
| Probability | AC Milan | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.3% | 17.9% | 67.8% |
| Market | 42.0% | 26.4% | 31.5% |
| Final | 35.1% | 24.3% | 40.6% |
| Edge | -27.8% | -8.5% | +36.3% |
Why Benfica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Benfica below the model: +36.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AC Milan and Benfica expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.85
AC Milan and Benfica attack and defence ratings
AC Milan
Benfica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AC Milan vs Benfica: result vs prediction
AC Milan 0 – 2 Benfica
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
AC Milan vs Benfica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 40.6% | 2.46 | +36.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 35.1% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Benfica | 40.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% |
| No | 34.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 47.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 31.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 1-3 | 7.9% | |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
AC Milan vs Benfica stats
AC Milan and Benfica recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AC Milan and Benfica going into this match
Benfica record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
AC Milan vs Benfica head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-07-28 | AC Milan | Benfica | International Champions Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AC Milan vs Benfica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 26.6%, away 31.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 1xBet | 2.33 | 3.58 | 3.10 |
| 888Sport | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.18 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.58 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.57 | 3.09 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 3.12 | 2.96 |
| Unibet | 2.02 | 3.75 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .