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Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 5

AC Milan vs Lecce

3 – 0 Full time

14′C. Pulisic
46′N. StulicP. Esteban
58′D. Veiga
61′A. Rabiot
70′A. SaelemaekersD. Moreira
70′C. PulisicR. Loftus-Cheek
70′J. MonteiroA. Fatah
70′Y. MalehO. Ngom
70′I. IlicM. Kaba
73′D. Moreira
76′L. ModricY. Musah
76′P. EstupinanD. Bartesaghi
82′S. PierottiK. Ndri
89′S. ChukwuezeF. Camarda

San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, MilanReferee: F. La Penna

AC Milan 70%
Draw 18%
Lecce 12%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 3
69 Possession % 31
2 Corners 3
9 Fouls 15
4 Offsides 1
3 Saves 1
637 Accurate passes 253

AC Milan vs Lecce overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AC Milan vs Lecce

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAC MilanDrawLecce
Model53.1%23.4%23.5%
Market75.9%15.9%8.1%
Final70.2%17.8%12.0%
Edge-22.8%+7.4%+15.4%

Confidence: High

Why AC Milan

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.48.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AC Milan ↓ / Lecce → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 7% 5% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 4%

AC Milan and Lecce expected goals

AC Milan 2.24
Lecce 1.48

Total expected goals: 3.72

AC Milan and Lecce attack and defence ratings

AC Milan

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Lecce

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.65 +65%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AC Milan vs Lecce: result vs prediction

AC Milan 3 – 0 Lecce

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

AC Milan vs Lecce markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AC Milan 70.2% 1.42 -22.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.8% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.7% 1.41 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.0% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.7% 2.14 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AC Milan70.2%
Draw17.8%
Lecce12.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.8%
Under 2.528.2%
Both teams to scoreYes70.7%
No29.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.0%
12 (either side)82.2%
X2 (draw or away)29.8%
Handicap -1AC Milan win33.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss46.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
2-19.0%
3-16.7%

AC Milan vs Lecce stats

AC Milan and Lecce recent form

newest first
AC Milan LDDWWL
Lecce WLLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AC Milan vs Lecce head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8AC Milan wins 2Draws 0Lecce wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-18AC MilanLecceSerie A1-0
2025-09-23AC MilanLecceCoppa Italia3-0
2025-08-29LecceAC MilanSerie A0-2
2025-03-08LecceAC MilanSerie A2-3
2024-09-27AC MilanLecceSerie A3-0
2024-04-06AC MilanLecceSerie A3-0
2023-11-11LecceAC MilanSerie A2-2
2023-04-23AC MilanLecceSerie A2-0
2023-01-14LecceAC MilanSerie A2-2
2020-06-22LecceAC MilanSerie A1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AC Milan vs Lecce odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 75.7%, draw 15.9%, away 8.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.29 6.29 12.60
Bet365 1.25 6.00 11.00
BetVictor 1.22 6.00 13.00
Betano 1.29 6.00 11.75
Betfair 1.25 6.00 11.00
Marathonbet 1.26 5.95 12.00
Pinnacle 1.26 6.23 11.87
SBO 1.26 5.61 10.12
William Hill 1.25 5.50 11.00
winamax_de 1.32 4.90 8.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.26 ▼ -0.08
X 6.00 ▲ +1.10
2 11.75 ▲ +4.50

28 snapshots recorded, from .