Lecce
vs
Bologna
1 – 2 Full time
| 10′ | Ivan Ilić | ||
| 17′ | Riccardo Orsolini | ||
| 31′ | Paco Esteban | ||
| 36′ | Ivan IlićOumar Ngom | ||
| 44′ | Torbjørn Heggem | ||
| 45′ | Youssef Maleh | ||
| 55′ | Torbjørn HeggemEivind Helland | ||
| 62′ | Paco EstebanWillem Geubbels | ||
| 62′ | Roberto PiccoliJay Enem | ||
| 62′ | Santiago PierottiKonan N'Dri | ||
| 62′ | Tommaso PobegaOussama El Azzouzi | ||
| 64′ | Amar Fatah | ||
| 75′ | Jay Enem | ||
| 79′ | Amar FatahJoel Almada Monteiro | ||
| 79′ | Youssef MalehOmri Gandelman | ||
| 81′ | Nicolo CambiaghiFederico Bernardeschi | ||
| 81′ | Juan MirandaRahim Alhassane | ||
| 90′ | Oussama El Azzouzi |
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 341 | Accurate passes | 249 |
Lecce vs Bologna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lecce vs Bologna
| Probability | Lecce | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.5% | 25.9% | 50.5% |
| Market | 22.8% | 28.6% | 48.6% |
| Final | 22.9% | 27.9% | 49.1% |
| Edge | +0.2% | -0.7% | +0.5% |
Why Bologna
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.30.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lecce and Bologna expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Lecce and Bologna attack and defence ratings
Lecce
Bologna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lecce vs Bologna: result vs prediction
Lecce 1 – 2 Bologna
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lecce vs Bologna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bologna | 49.1% | 2.04 | +0.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 22.9% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Bologna | 49.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
Lecce vs Bologna stats
Lecce and Bologna recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lecce and Bologna going into this match
Lecce record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bologna record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Lecce vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Bologna | Lecce | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Lecce | Bologna | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-09 | Lecce | Bologna | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Bologna | Lecce | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-11 | Bologna | Lecce | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2023-12-03 | Lecce | Bologna | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-06-04 | Lecce | Bologna | Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2022-10-23 | Bologna | Lecce | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2020-07-26 | Bologna | Lecce | Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2019-12-22 | Lecce | Bologna | Serie A | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lecce vs Bologna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.8%, draw 28.6%, away 48.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.58 | 3.44 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 3.40 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.35 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 3.34 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 4.30 | 3.34 | 1.99 |
| SBO | 3.62 | 3.20 | 1.92 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .