Lecce
vs
Bologna
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bologna
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Lecce vs Bologna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lecce vs Bologna
| Probability | Lecce | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.2% | 25.8% | 51.0% |
| Market | 22.3% | 28.1% | 49.5% |
| Final | 22.5% | 27.6% | 49.9% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -2.3% | +1.5% |
Why Bologna
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.30.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lecce vs Bologna match preview
Lecce will face Bologna in their upcoming Serie A match, with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Bologna holds a 49% chance of winning, while Lecce has a 23% chance, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Bologna, with a 10% probability. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at 63%, and both teams are projected to score at 64%.
In terms of recent form, Lecce has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Bologna has struggled with three draws and three losses. Historically, Bologna has dominated their head-to-head encounters, winning three out of the last six meetings, with Lecce yet to secure a victory. Expected goals suggest Lecce will score 1.30, while Bologna is projected to net 1.96.
Lecce and Bologna team news
Lecce news
- M. Berisha — lacking match fitness
Bologna news
- A. Dovbyk — muscle injury
- E. Holm — thigh injury
- J. Odgaard — thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lecce and Bologna expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Lecce and Bologna attack and defence ratings
Lecce
Bologna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lecce vs Bologna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bologna | 49.9% | 2.00 | +1.5% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 22.5% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Bologna | 49.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win | 30.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
Lecce vs Bologna stats
Lecce vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Bologna | Lecce | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Lecce | Bologna | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-09 | Lecce | Bologna | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Bologna | Lecce | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-11 | Bologna | Lecce | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2023-12-03 | Lecce | Bologna | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lecce vs Bologna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.3%, draw 28.1%, away 49.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.58 | 3.44 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 4.15 | 3.45 | 1.93 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 3.45 | 1.94 |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 3.34 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 4.70 | 3.27 | 1.93 |
| SBO | 3.55 | 3.09 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.25 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .