Genoa
vs
Fiorentina
2 – 1 Full time
| 7′ | Milutin Osmajić | ||
| 15′ | Luca Ranieri | ||
| 15′ | Junior Messias | ||
| 21′ | Christ Inao Oulaï | ||
| 45′ | Christ Inao OulaïAlieu Njie | ||
| 45′ | Luca RanieriViery | ||
| 57′ | Junior MessiasVítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira | ||
| 57′ | Stephan El ShaarawySamuel Wiafe | ||
| 60′ | Viery | ||
| 65′ | BetoMateo Pellegrino | ||
| 66′ | Sebastian OtoaAlessandro Marcandalli | ||
| 73′ | Johan Vásquez | ||
| 74′ | Hamed Junior Traorè | ||
| 80′ | Álex JiménezDomilson Dodo | ||
| 81′ | Wilfried GnontoPedro Goncalves | ||
| 81′ | Kingsley EhizibueDavid Puczka | ||
| 82′ | Mikael EllertssonStefano Sabelli | ||
| 84′ | Johan Vásquez | ||
| 85′ | Samuel Wiafe | ||
| 90′ | Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira | ||
| 90′ | Stefano Sabelli |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 37 | Possession % | 63 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 209 | Accurate passes | 406 |
Genoa vs Fiorentina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Genoa vs Fiorentina
| Probability | Genoa | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.3% | 28.4% | 38.3% |
| Market | 29.7% | 29.0% | 41.3% |
| Final | 30.6% | 28.9% | 40.6% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.2% | -0.7% |
Why Fiorentina
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Genoa and Fiorentina expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Genoa and Fiorentina attack and defence ratings
Genoa
Fiorentina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Genoa vs Fiorentina: result vs prediction
Genoa 2 – 1 Fiorentina
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Genoa vs Fiorentina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 40.6% | 2.47 | -0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 30.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Fiorentina | 40.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fiorentina win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 61.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Genoa vs Fiorentina stats
Genoa and Fiorentina recent form
| Genoa |
LWDLLL |
| Fiorentina |
DWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Genoa and Fiorentina going into this match
Genoa record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
Fiorentina record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Genoa vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-02 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-31 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-15 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-19 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-4 |
| 2022-01-17 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 6-0 |
| 2021-09-18 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2021-04-03 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2020-12-07 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Genoa vs Fiorentina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.7%, draw 29.0%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.23 | 3.48 | 2.39 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.36 |
| Marathonbet | 3.14 | 3.38 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 3.35 | 3.23 | 2.35 |
| SBO | 2.91 | 3.05 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
47 snapshots recorded, from .