Genoa
vs
Fiorentina
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fiorentina
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Genoa vs Fiorentina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Genoa vs Fiorentina
| Probability | Genoa | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.3% | 28.4% | 38.3% |
| Market | 29.6% | 29.1% | 41.3% |
| Final | 30.6% | 28.9% | 40.5% |
| Edge | +3.6% | -0.7% | -2.9% |
Why Fiorentina
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Genoa vs Fiorentina match preview
Genoa faces Fiorentina in their upcoming Serie A match, with the model indicating a 31% chance of a Genoa victory, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 40% probability of Fiorentina winning. The expected goals for Genoa stand at 1.47, while Fiorentina is slightly ahead with 1.59. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Genoa recording one win in their last six matches, while Fiorentina has two wins in the same number of games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 59%, and there is a 63% chance that both teams will score during the match. In their last six encounters, Genoa has not managed to secure a win against Fiorentina, who have three victories and three draws.
Genoa and Fiorentina team news
Genoa news
- D. Sow — injury
- E. Havel — ankle injury
- F. Meichtry — muscle injury
- L. Colombo — ankle injury
- L. Venturino — knee injury
Fiorentina news
- F. Parisi — knee injury
- R. Sottil — back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Genoa and Fiorentina expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Genoa and Fiorentina attack and defence ratings
Genoa
Fiorentina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Genoa vs Fiorentina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 40.5% | 2.47 | -2.9% | 2.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 30.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Fiorentina | 40.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fiorentina win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 61.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Genoa vs Fiorentina stats
Genoa and Fiorentina recent form
| Genoa |
LWDLLL |
| Fiorentina |
DWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Genoa and Fiorentina season so far
Genoa record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
Fiorentina record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Genoa vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-02 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-31 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-15 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-19 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-4 |
| 2022-01-17 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 6-0 |
| 2021-09-18 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2021-04-03 | Genoa | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2020-12-07 | Fiorentina | Genoa | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Genoa vs Fiorentina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.6%, draw 29.1%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.23 | 3.48 | 2.39 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.15 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.34 |
| Marathonbet | 3.14 | 3.38 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 3.34 | 3.23 | 2.36 |
| SBO | 2.84 | 3.01 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
46 snapshots recorded, from .