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Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 5

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa

2 – 1 Full time

9′D. Drobnic
14′S. Otoa
38′D. Romero
44′A. Marcandalli
56′D. RomeroN. Elphege
56′E. B. ToureP. Almqvist
60′K. EhizibueS. El Shaarawy
60′S. OtoaD. Puczka
67′S. LontaniG. Fabbian
69′T. BaldanziL. Colombo
70′M. Osmajic
80′P. Almqvist
81′Diego CarlosS. Britschgi
81′V. SierroC. Ordonez
85′D. SowVitinha
85′Junior MessiasH. J. Traore
85′E. Delprato
90′M. E. Ellertsson
90′M. Troilo

Stadio Ennio Tardini, ParmaReferee: M. Mariani

Parma Calcio 1913 28%
Draw 31%
Genoa 41%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

5 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 5
42 Possession % 58
2 Corners 5
15 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 1
4 Saves 0
256 Accurate passes 371

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityParma Calcio 1913DrawGenoa
Model21.3%28.6%50.1%
Market30.8%31.8%37.4%
Final28.4%31.0%40.6%
Edge-9.4%-3.2%+12.7%

Confidence: High

Why Genoa

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Genoa below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Parma Calcio 1 ↓ / Genoa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 8% 9% 1 14% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 9%

Parma Calcio 1913 and Genoa expected goals

Parma Calcio 1913 1.06
Genoa 1.70

Total expected goals: 2.76

Parma Calcio 1913 and Genoa attack and defence ratings

Parma Calcio 1913

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 1.39 +39%

Genoa

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa: result vs prediction

Parma Calcio 1913 2 – 1 Genoa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Genoa 40.6% 2.46 +12.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.2% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.7% 1.79 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 71.6% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.9% 2.00 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Parma Calcio 191328.4%
Draw31.0%
Genoa40.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%
Both teams to scoreYes55.7%
No44.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.4%
12 (either side)69.0%
X2 (draw or away)71.6%
Handicap -1Genoa win28.6%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss49.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-29.7%
0-29.1%

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa stats

Parma Calcio 1913 and Genoa recent form

newest first
Parma Calcio 1913 LDLLLW
Genoa WDLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Parma Calcio 1913 wins 3Draws 3Genoa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-18Parma Calcio 1913GenoaSerie A0-0
2025-10-19GenoaParma Calcio 1913Serie A0-0
2025-01-12GenoaParma Calcio 1913Serie A1-0
2024-11-04Parma Calcio 1913GenoaSerie A0-1
2023-02-05Parma Calcio 1913GenoaSerie B2-0
2022-09-03GenoaParma Calcio 1913Serie B3-3
2021-03-19Parma Calcio 1913GenoaSerie A1-2
2020-11-30GenoaParma Calcio 1913Serie A1-2
2020-06-23GenoaParma Calcio 1913Serie A1-4
2019-10-20Parma Calcio 1913GenoaSerie A5-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.1%, draw 31.6%, away 37.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.05 2.95 2.48
1xBet 3.22 3.10 2.61
Bet365 3.00 3.00 2.55
BetVictor 3.00 3.10 2.45
Betano 3.10 3.00 2.55
Betfair 3.10 2.90 2.63
Marathonbet 3.12 3.02 2.54
Pinnacle 3.20 3.00 2.59
SBO 2.86 2.87 2.43
Unibet 3.00 2.95 2.55
William Hill 3.00 2.90 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.10 ▲ +0.04
X 3.00 ▲ +0.09
2 2.55 ▼ -0.08

27 snapshots recorded, from .