Roma
vs
Inter
2 – 2 Full time
| 6′ | M. Kone | ||
| 11′ | Nicolò Barella | ||
| 37′ | M. Kone | ||
| 45′ | Manuel Akanji | ||
| 46′ | L. Martinez | ||
| 54′ | C. JonesP. Sucic | ||
| 54′ | F. DimarcoCarlos Augusto | ||
| 57′ | Alessandro Bastoni | ||
| 60′ | G. ManciniE. Ndicka | ||
| 60′ | N. MolinaD. Rensch | ||
| 60′ | M. KoneN. Pisilli | ||
| 63′ | A. BastoniLuis Henrique | ||
| 66′ | L. BalerdiD. Ghilardi | ||
| 73′ | Evan Ndicka | ||
| 79′ | L. Martinez | ||
| 81′ | M. HermosoK. Koulierakis | ||
| 82′ | Konstantinos Koulierakis | ||
| 89′ | Daniele Ghilardi | ||
| 90′ | L. MartinezF. Esposito | ||
| 90′ | M. ThuramA. Bonny |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 389 | Accurate passes | 407 |
Roma vs Inter overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roma vs Inter
| Probability | Roma | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.5% | 22.1% | 23.4% |
| Market | 35.4% | 27.7% | 36.8% |
| Final | 40.2% | 26.3% | 33.5% |
| Edge | +19.0% | -5.6% | -13.4% |
Why Roma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.59.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below the model: +19.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roma and Inter expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.99
Roma and Inter attack and defence ratings
Roma
Inter
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Roma vs Inter: result vs prediction
Roma 2 – 2 Inter
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Roma vs Inter markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 40.2% | 2.49 | +19.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 40.2% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Inter | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.7% |
| No | 26.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 35.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
Roma vs Inter stats
Roma vs Inter head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Inter | Roma | Serie A | 5-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Roma | Inter | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Inter | Roma | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-20 | Roma | Inter | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-10 | Roma | Inter | Serie A | 2-4 |
| 2023-10-29 | Inter | Roma | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-06 | Roma | Inter | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2022-10-01 | Inter | Roma | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2022-04-23 | Inter | Roma | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2022-02-08 | Inter | Roma | Coppa Italia | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roma vs Inter odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 28.0%, away 36.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.68 |
| 1xBet | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Marathonbet | 2.75 | 3.46 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.63 |
| SBO | 2.48 | 3.28 | 2.36 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .