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Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 5

Fiorentina vs Napoli

1 – 1 Full time

23′B. Gilmour
42′F. Mastantuono
46′VieryV. Valdepenas
51′A. Jimenez
58′R. HojlundL. Lucca
58′N. LangDavid Neres
62′L. Ranieri
66′A. AttaPote
66′M. PellegrinoBeto
73′M. PolitanoC. Favasuli
80′A. NjieW. Gnonto
83′D. de Gea
85′L. RanieriM. Pongracic
90′S. LobotkaF. Anguissa

Stadio Artemio Franchi, FlorenceReferee: D. Doveri

Fiorentina 32%
Draw 28%
Napoli 40%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 5
42 Possession % 58
4 Corners 5
11 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1
4 Saves 3
334 Accurate passes 485

Fiorentina vs Napoli overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fiorentina vs Napoli

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFiorentinaDrawNapoli
Model38.9%28.4%32.6%
Market29.7%27.9%42.4%
Final32.0%28.0%40.0%
Edge+9.2%+0.6%-9.8%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fiorentina ↓ / Napoli → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 13% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 7%

Fiorentina and Napoli expected goals

Fiorentina 1.59
Napoli 1.45

Total expected goals: 3.04

Fiorentina and Napoli attack and defence ratings

Fiorentina

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Napoli

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fiorentina vs Napoli: result vs prediction

Fiorentina 1 – 1 Napoli

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

Fiorentina vs Napoli markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Napoli 40.0% 2.50 -9.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.6% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.2% 1.58 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.0% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.4% 1.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fiorentina32.0%
Draw28.0%
Napoli40.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%
Both teams to scoreYes63.2%
No36.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.0%
12 (either side)72.0%
X2 (draw or away)68.0%
Handicap -1Napoli win16.2%
Push (exactly one goal)16.4%
Loss67.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
2-18.8%
1-28.0%

Fiorentina vs Napoli stats

Fiorentina and Napoli recent form

newest first
Fiorentina WWLLLW
Napoli WLLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fiorentina vs Napoli head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Fiorentina wins 2Draws 6Napoli wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-31NapoliFiorentinaSerie A2-1
2025-09-13FiorentinaNapoliSerie A1-3
2025-03-09NapoliFiorentinaSerie A2-1
2025-01-04FiorentinaNapoliSerie A0-3
2024-05-17FiorentinaNapoliSerie A2-2
2024-01-18NapoliFiorentinaSuper Cup3-0
2023-10-08NapoliFiorentinaSerie A1-3
2023-05-07NapoliFiorentinaSerie A1-0
2022-08-28FiorentinaNapoliSerie A0-0
2022-04-10NapoliFiorentinaSerie A2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fiorentina vs Napoli odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.6%, draw 27.9%, away 42.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.20 3.30 2.20
1xBet 3.36 3.52 2.31
Bet365 3.20 3.40 2.25
BetVictor 3.13 3.50 2.20
Betano 3.20 3.50 2.22
Betfair 3.30 3.40 2.25
Marathonbet 3.26 3.42 2.24
Pinnacle 3.33 3.41 2.27
SBO 2.90 3.16 2.23
Unibet 3.20 3.30 2.23
William Hill 3.10 3.25 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.20 ▼ -0.14
X 3.41 ▼ -0.01
2 2.24 ▲ +0.08

27 snapshots recorded, from .