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Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 4

Napoli vs Bologna

1 – 0 Full time

31′Mikel Amondarain
46′M. PolitanoC. Favasuli
46′A. VergaraN. Lang
58′T. PobegaM. Libra
58′R. PiccoliJ. Odgaard
66′M. AmondarainN. Moro
66′S. Lobotka
75′R. HojlundL. Lucca
82′N. CambiaghiS. Mbangula
82′F. BernardeschiJ. Enem
88′K. De BruyneM. Olivera

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, NaplesReferee: Kevin Bonacina, Italy

Napoli 48%
Draw 27%
Bologna 25%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 2
58 Possession % 42
10 Corners 0
15 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 3
2 Saves 3
494 Accurate passes 362

Napoli vs Bologna overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Napoli vs Bologna

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNapoliDrawBologna
Model36.3%29.2%34.5%
Market52.1%26.5%21.5%
Final48.1%27.2%24.7%
Edge-15.8%+2.8%+13.0%

Confidence: High

Why Napoli

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Napoli ↓ / Bologna → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 14% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 8%

Napoli and Bologna expected goals

Napoli 1.48
Bologna 1.44

Total expected goals: 2.92

Napoli and Bologna attack and defence ratings

Napoli

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Bologna

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Napoli vs Bologna: result vs prediction

Napoli 1 – 0 Bologna

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

Napoli vs Bologna markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Napoli 48.1% 2.08 -15.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.0% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.3% 1.63 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.3% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.7% 1.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Napoli48.1%
Draw27.2%
Bologna24.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%
Both teams to scoreYes61.3%
No38.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.3%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)51.9%
Handicap -1Napoli win18.5%
Push (exactly one goal)17.8%
Loss63.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
2-18.5%
1-28.3%

Napoli vs Bologna stats

Napoli and Bologna recent form

newest first
Napoli LLLWWW
Bologna DLLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Napoli vs Bologna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Napoli wins 3Draws 3Bologna wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-11NapoliBolognaSerie A2-3
2025-12-22NapoliBolognaSuper Cup2-0
2025-11-09BolognaNapoliSerie A2-0
2025-04-07BolognaNapoliSerie A1-1
2024-08-25NapoliBolognaSerie A3-0
2024-05-11NapoliBolognaSerie A0-2
2023-09-24BolognaNapoliSerie A0-0
2023-05-28BolognaNapoliSerie A2-2
2022-10-16NapoliBolognaSerie A3-2
2022-01-17BolognaNapoliSerie A0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Napoli vs Bologna odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.2%, draw 26.5%, away 21.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.69 3.55 5.10
1xBet 1.87 3.78 4.60
Bet365 1.83 3.60 4.50
BetVictor 1.80 3.60 4.33
Betano 1.90 3.70 4.40
Betfair 1.85 3.50 4.60
Dafabet 1.74 3.65 4.90
Marathonbet 1.83 3.70 4.50
Pinnacle 1.85 3.71 4.44
SBO 1.78 3.21 3.96
Unibet 1.67 3.55 5.20
William Hill 1.83 3.30 4.20
winamax_fr 1.47 3.70 4.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.83 ▲ +0.36
X 3.60 ▼ -0.10
2 4.44 ▼ -0.46

28 snapshots recorded, from .