Venezia
vs
Fiorentina
2 – 4 Full time
| 22′ | A. Adams | ||
| 29′ | F. Mastantuono | ||
| 30′ | F. Mastantuono | ||
| 38′ | Joel Schingtienne | ||
| 44′ | G. BusioT. J. Helgason | ||
| 60′ | A. AttaW. Gnonto | ||
| 60′ | BetoM. Pellegrino | ||
| 66′ | M. Pellegrino | ||
| 69′ | M. MorenoJuan Jesus | ||
| 69′ | R. SagradoT. Correia | ||
| 72′ | Alieu Njie | ||
| 73′ | Simon Sohm | ||
| 80′ | S. SohmL. Lauberbach | ||
| 80′ | J. YeboahT. Fernandez | ||
| 80′ | A. NjiePote | ||
| 84′ | F. Mastantuono | ||
| 86′ | A. Hainaut | ||
| 89′ | L. RanieriM. Pongracic | ||
| 89′ | F. MastantuonoM. Brescianini |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 2 |
| 498 | Accurate passes | 274 |
Venezia vs Fiorentina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Venezia vs Fiorentina
| Probability | Venezia | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.7% | 25.7% | 25.6% |
| Market | 33.8% | 28.3% | 37.9% |
| Final | 37.5% | 27.6% | 34.8% |
| Edge | +14.9% | -2.6% | -12.3% |
Why Venezia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.41.
- The market prices Venezia below the model: +14.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Venezia and Fiorentina expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Venezia and Fiorentina attack and defence ratings
Venezia
Fiorentina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Venezia vs Fiorentina: result vs prediction
Venezia 2 – 4 Fiorentina
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Venezia vs Fiorentina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 37.5% | 2.66 | +14.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 37.5% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Fiorentina | 34.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Venezia win | 29.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 6.7% |
Venezia vs Fiorentina stats
Venezia and Fiorentina recent form
| Venezia |
LLLLWW |
| Fiorentina |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Venezia vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-12 | Venezia | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-25 | Fiorentina | Venezia | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-16 | Fiorentina | Venezia | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-18 | Venezia | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Venezia vs Fiorentina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 27.9%, away 39.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| 1xBet | 2.93 | 3.44 | 2.61 |
| 888Sport | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.42 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.61 | 3.07 | 2.36 |
| Superbet | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Unibet | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| unibet_fr | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .