Garuda Lions
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Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 4

Atalanta vs Cagliari

1 – 2 Full time

19′P. Mendy
41′G. Scamacca
57′J. FazziniA. Fadera
61′D. Maldini
68′S. KolasinacL. Bernasconi
68′G. ScamaccaN. Krstovic
68′J. PedroY. Sugawara
77′L. SamardzicG. Raspadori
79′D. MaldiniR. Kofler
79′P. MendyKevin
86′F. KessieM. Pasalic

New Balance Arena, BergamoReferee: Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy

Atalanta 50%
Draw 26%
Cagliari 24%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 5
4 Shots on target 5
62 Possession % 38
3 Corners 2
9 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 3
634 Accurate passes 375

Atalanta vs Cagliari overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atalanta vs Cagliari

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtalantaDrawCagliari
Model32.4%29.9%37.6%
Market55.8%25.2%19.0%
Final50.0%26.4%23.6%
Edge-23.4%+4.7%+18.7%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atalanta ↓ / Cagliari → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 14% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 8%

Atalanta and Cagliari expected goals

Atalanta 1.35
Cagliari 1.46

Total expected goals: 2.81

Atalanta and Cagliari attack and defence ratings

Atalanta

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Cagliari

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atalanta vs Cagliari: result vs prediction

Atalanta 1 – 2 Cagliari

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

Atalanta vs Cagliari markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atalanta 50.0% 2.00 -23.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.3% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.3% 1.69 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.4% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.6% 1.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atalanta50.0%
Draw26.4%
Cagliari23.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%
Both teams to scoreYes59.3%
No40.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.4%
12 (either side)73.6%
X2 (draw or away)50.0%
Handicap -1Atalanta win15.6%
Push (exactly one goal)16.8%
Loss67.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
1-28.7%
0-08.4%

Atalanta vs Cagliari stats

Atalanta and Cagliari recent form

newest first
Atalanta LWWWDD
Cagliari WLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atalanta vs Cagliari head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Atalanta wins 1Draws 3Cagliari wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-27CagliariAtalantaSerie A3-2
2025-12-13AtalantaCagliariSerie A2-1
2025-02-15AtalantaCagliariSerie A0-0
2024-12-14CagliariAtalantaSerie A0-1
2024-04-07CagliariAtalantaSerie A2-1
2023-09-24AtalantaCagliariSerie A2-0
2022-02-06AtalantaCagliariSerie A1-2
2021-11-06CagliariAtalantaSerie A1-2
2021-02-14CagliariAtalantaSerie A0-1
2021-01-14AtalantaCagliariCoppa Italia3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atalanta vs Cagliari odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.6%, draw 25.3%, away 18.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.52 3.85 6.60
1xBet 1.75 3.86 5.41
Bet365 1.70 3.75 5.00
BetVictor 1.67 3.80 5.00
Betano 1.78 3.80 4.90
Betfair 1.70 3.75 5.00
Dafabet 1.57 4.10 6.00
Marathonbet 1.71 3.78 5.30
Pinnacle 1.72 3.77 5.38
SBO 1.70 3.52 4.48
Unibet 1.49 4.00 6.50
William Hill 1.67 3.50 4.80
winamax_fr 1.38 3.95 5.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.70 ▲ +0.32
X 3.77 ▼ -0.18
2 5.00 ▼ -0.70

27 snapshots recorded, from .