Cagliari
vs
Lecce
1 – 0 Full time
| 29′ | D. Maldini | ||
| 37′ | Kialonda Gaspar | ||
| 46′ | O. NgomA. Fatah | ||
| 61′ | J. FazziniM. Felici | ||
| 66′ | J. RodriguezR. Kofler | ||
| 66′ | D. MaldiniA. Fadera | ||
| 66′ | K. GasparJ. Siebert | ||
| 66′ | I. IlicY. Maleh | ||
| 66′ | J. MonteiroK. Ndri | ||
| 74′ | CagliariR. Gagliardini | ||
| 74′ | P. MendyA. Sugamele | ||
| 82′ | S. PierottiM. Berisha | ||
| 90′ | Alessandro Deiola | ||
| 90′ | Wladimiro Falcone | ||
| 90′ | Jamil Siebert |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 8 |
| 302 | Accurate passes | 423 |
Cagliari vs Lecce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cagliari vs Lecce
| Probability | Cagliari | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 24.1% | 25.3% |
| Market | 46.6% | 30.7% | 22.7% |
| Final | 47.6% | 29.0% | 23.4% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -6.6% | +2.5% |
Why Cagliari
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.51.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cagliari below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cagliari and Lecce expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
Cagliari and Lecce attack and defence ratings
Cagliari
Lecce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cagliari vs Lecce: result vs prediction
Cagliari 1 – 0 Lecce
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cagliari vs Lecce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 47.6% | 2.10 | +4.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 47.6% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Lecce | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% |
| No | 29.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cagliari win | 31.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Cagliari vs Lecce stats
Cagliari vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Cagliari | Lecce | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-19 | Lecce | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-19 | Cagliari | Lecce | Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Lecce | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-05 | Cagliari | Lecce | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-06 | Lecce | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2020-07-12 | Cagliari | Lecce | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2019-11-25 | Lecce | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2012-02-26 | Cagliari | Lecce | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2011-10-02 | Lecce | Cagliari | Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cagliari vs Lecce odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.6%, draw 30.3%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.00 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.31 | 4.07 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.15 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.05 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.24 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.24 | 4.07 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.04 | 3.65 |
| Superbet | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| Unibet | 2.08 | 3.00 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| codere_it | 2.34 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
| unibet_fr | 2.00 | 2.95 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .