Lecce
vs
Roma
0 – 4 Full time
| 4′ | D. Malen | ||
| 9′ | Donyell Malen | ||
| 23′ | D. Malen | ||
| 25′ | M. Soule | ||
| 46′ | O. GorterY. Maleh | ||
| 46′ | Tiago GabrielK. Ndri | ||
| 54′ | W. GeubbelsN. Stulic | ||
| 60′ | Wesley FrancaN. Molina | ||
| 60′ | M. SouleR. Mora | ||
| 65′ | R. Mora | ||
| 67′ | M. KoneN. Pisilli | ||
| 67′ | D. MalenS. Castro | ||
| 72′ | O. NgomI. Ilic | ||
| 72′ | S. PierottiA. Fatah | ||
| 84′ | P. DybalaM. De Roon | ||
| 90′ | Ivan Ilić |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Offsides | 9 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 294 | Accurate passes | 597 |
Lecce vs Roma overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lecce vs Roma
| Probability | Lecce | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.3% | 18.0% | 70.7% |
| Market | 12.7% | 21.9% | 65.4% |
| Final | 12.3% | 20.9% | 66.8% |
| Edge | -1.3% | -4.0% | +5.3% |
Why Roma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lecce and Roma expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.86
Lecce and Roma attack and defence ratings
Lecce
Roma
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lecce vs Roma: result vs prediction
Lecce 0 – 4 Roma
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lecce vs Roma markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 66.8% | 1.50 | +5.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 12.3% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Roma | 66.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% |
| No | 36.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 51.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 29.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-3 | 8.1% | |
| 0-2 | 8.0% |
Lecce vs Roma stats
Lecce vs Roma head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Roma | Lecce | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Lecce | Roma | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-29 | Lecce | Roma | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Roma | Lecce | Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce | Roma | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Roma | Lecce | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-11 | Lecce | Roma | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-09 | Roma | Lecce | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2022-01-20 | Roma | Lecce | Coppa Italia | 3-1 |
| 2020-02-23 | Roma | Lecce | Serie A | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lecce vs Roma odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.7%, draw 21.9%, away 65.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 7.20 | 4.10 | 1.45 |
| 1xBet | 7.95 | 4.44 | 1.50 |
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.45 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.44 |
| Betano | 7.70 | 4.45 | 1.50 |
| Betfair | 8.00 | 4.33 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 7.80 | 4.50 | 1.45 |
| Marathonbet | 7.80 | 4.35 | 1.47 |
| Pinnacle | 7.63 | 4.39 | 1.48 |
| SBO | 7.34 | 4.14 | 1.44 |
| Superbet | 7.30 | 4.45 | 1.46 |
| Unibet | 7.50 | 4.10 | 1.43 |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
| codere_it | 5.40 | 3.50 | 1.74 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .