Roma
vs
Atalanta
2 – 1 Full time
| 46′ | G. ScamaccaN. Krstovic | ||
| 47′ | Ederson | ||
| 54′ | E. LulliN. Molina | ||
| 54′ | R. MoraM. Soule | ||
| 62′ | G. ManciniD. Ghilardi | ||
| 63′ | D. MalenS. Castro | ||
| 66′ | L. SamardzicM. Pasalic | ||
| 66′ | E. ElmasN. Zalewski | ||
| 67′ | E. NdickaL. Balerdi | ||
| 72′ | S. KolasinacD. Zappacosta | ||
| 79′ | EdersonF. Kessie | ||
| 84′ | Raoul Bellanova | ||
| 89′ | M. Hermoso | ||
| 90′ | Gianluca Gaetano | ||
| 90′ | M. Soule |
Match stats
| 39 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 67 | Possession % | 33 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Offsides | 4 |
| 1 | Saves | 9 |
| 549 | Accurate passes | 254 |
Roma vs Atalanta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roma vs Atalanta
| Probability | Roma | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 22.1% | 12.3% |
| Market | 57.2% | 23.7% | 19.2% |
| Final | 59.3% | 23.3% | 17.4% |
| Edge | +8.5% | -1.6% | -6.9% |
Why Roma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roma and Atalanta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Roma and Atalanta attack and defence ratings
Roma
Atalanta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Roma vs Atalanta: result vs prediction
Roma 2 – 1 Atalanta
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Roma vs Atalanta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 59.3% | 1.69 | +8.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 59.3% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Atalanta | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 44.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.7% |
| 1-1 | 10.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Roma vs Atalanta stats
Roma vs Atalanta head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Roma | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Atalanta | Roma | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Atalanta | Roma | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-02 | Roma | Atalanta | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2024-05-12 | Atalanta | Roma | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-01-07 | Roma | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-24 | Atalanta | Roma | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2022-09-18 | Roma | Atalanta | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2022-03-05 | Roma | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2021-12-18 | Atalanta | Roma | Serie A | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roma vs Atalanta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.8%, draw 25.2%, away 19.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.69 | 3.65 | 4.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 4.20 | 5.11 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.15 |
| SBO | 1.71 | 3.31 | 4.17 |
| Superbet | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Unibet | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| codere_it | 2.19 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .