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Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 3

Juventus vs AC Milan

1 – 1 Full time

61′A. SaelemaekersR. Loftus-Cheek
61′A. RabiotS. Chukwueze
61′D. MoreiraA. Cisse
64′N. GonzalezT. Koopmeiners
64′K. AlajbegovicJ. Boga
68′A. Cisse
76′Douglas LuizN. Woltemade
79′Pervis Estupiñán
82′L. ModricA. Jashari
88′Z. CelikF. Gatti
88′F. ConceicaoE. Zhegrova
88′M. GilaF. Terracciano
90′Federico Gatti
90′Alphadjo Cissè
90′Koni De Winter
90′F. Gatti

Allianz Stadium, TurinReferee: Maurizio Mariani, Italy

Juventus 49%
Draw 28%
AC Milan 23%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 3
5 Shots on target 1
49 Possession % 51
7 Corners 1
10 Fouls 11
5 Offsides 1
0 Saves 4
379 Accurate passes 413

Juventus vs AC Milan overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Juventus vs AC Milan

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJuventusDrawAC Milan
Model62.2%22.8%15.0%
Market44.5%29.6%25.9%
Final48.9%27.9%23.2%
Edge+17.7%-6.8%-10.9%

Confidence: High

Why Juventus

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.06.
  • The market prices Juventus below the model: +17.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Juventus ↓ / AC Milan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 7% 11% 2 9% 10% 3 7% 7% 4+ 7% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Juventus and AC Milan expected goals

Juventus 2.23
AC Milan 1.06

Total expected goals: 3.29

Juventus and AC Milan attack and defence ratings

Juventus

Attack 1.55 +55%
Defence 0.71 -29%

AC Milan

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Juventus vs AC Milan: result vs prediction

Juventus 1 – 1 AC Milan

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

Juventus vs AC Milan markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Juventus 48.9% 2.04 +17.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.9% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.0% 1.67 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.8% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Juventus win 41.1% 2.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Juventus48.9%
Draw27.9%
AC Milan23.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%
Both teams to scoreYes60.0%
No40.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.8%
12 (either side)72.1%
X2 (draw or away)51.1%
Handicap -1Juventus win41.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss37.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.5%
2-19.8%
2-09.3%

Juventus vs AC Milan stats

Juventus and AC Milan recent form

newest first
Juventus WWDLWD
AC Milan WWLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Juventus vs AC Milan head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Juventus wins 5Draws 3AC Milan wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26AC MilanJuventusSerie A0-0
2025-10-05JuventusAC MilanSerie A0-0
2025-01-18JuventusAC MilanSerie A2-0
2025-01-03JuventusAC MilanSuper Cup1-2
2024-11-23AC MilanJuventusSerie A0-0
2024-04-27JuventusAC MilanSerie A0-0
2023-10-22AC MilanJuventusSerie A0-1
2023-07-28JuventusAC MilanFriendlies Clubs2-2
2023-05-28JuventusAC MilanSerie A0-1
2022-10-08AC MilanJuventusSerie A2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Juventus vs AC Milan odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 29.2%, away 26.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.15 3.20 3.45
1xBet 2.21 3.40 3.74
Bet365 2.15 3.20 3.75
BetVictor 2.15 3.13 3.60
Betano 2.15 3.25 3.55
Betfair 2.10 3.30 3.75
Dafabet 2.15 3.30 3.65
Marathonbet 2.17 3.34 3.68
Pinnacle 2.19 3.29 3.75
SBO 2.05 3.02 3.21
Superbet 2.12 3.35 3.70
Unibet 2.02 3.35 3.60
William Hill 2.10 3.10 3.40
unibet_fr 2.05 3.10 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.16 ▲ +0.11
X 3.25 ▲ +0.15
2 3.71 ▲ +0.61

24 snapshots recorded, from .