Garuda Lions
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Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 4

Lazio vs AC Milan

2 – 2 Full time

10′M. Cancellieri
39′T. Noslin
46′L. ModricY. Musah
46′P. EstupinanD. Moreira
46′R. Loftus-CheekC. Pulisic
58′T. NoslinA. Pinamonti
58′M. CancellieriG. Isaksen
59′Christian Pulišić
63′Reda Belahyane
64′Strahinja Pavlović
65′D. Moreira
67′D. Moreira
74′K. TaylorA. Gudmundsson
77′A. CisseO. Hutchinson
78′Mattia Zaccagni
84′J. SutaloD. Leite
84′R. FlorianiM. Lazzari
85′G. RamosF. Camarda
86′Mario Gila

Stadio Olimpico, RomeReferee: Matteo Marcenaro, Italy

Lazio 28%
Draw 29%
AC Milan 43%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 7
34 Possession % 66
2 Corners 5
15 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1
5 Saves 4
261 Accurate passes 571

Lazio vs AC Milan overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lazio vs AC Milan

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLazioDrawAC Milan
Model35.1%29.8%35.1%
Market25.4%29.3%45.3%
Final27.8%29.4%42.8%
Edge+9.8%+0.5%-10.3%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lazio ↓ / AC Milan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 8%

Lazio and AC Milan expected goals

Lazio 1.42
AC Milan 1.42

Total expected goals: 2.84

Lazio and AC Milan attack and defence ratings

Lazio

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.05 +5%

AC Milan

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lazio vs AC Milan: result vs prediction

Lazio 2 – 2 AC Milan

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

Lazio vs AC Milan markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AC Milan 42.8% 2.34 -10.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.0% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.8% 1.67 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 72.2% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.0% 1.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lazio27.8%
Draw29.4%
AC Milan42.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%
Both teams to scoreYes59.8%
No40.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.2%
12 (either side)70.6%
X2 (draw or away)72.2%
Handicap -1AC Milan win17.4%
Push (exactly one goal)17.6%
Loss65.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
2-18.4%
1-28.4%

Lazio vs AC Milan stats

Lazio and AC Milan recent form

newest first
Lazio WWWLWL
AC Milan DWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lazio vs AC Milan head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Lazio wins 1Draws 5AC Milan wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15LazioAC MilanSerie A1-0
2025-12-04LazioAC MilanCoppa Italia1-0
2025-11-29AC MilanLazioSerie A1-0
2025-03-02AC MilanLazioSerie A1-2
2024-08-31LazioAC MilanSerie A2-2
2024-03-01LazioAC MilanSerie A0-1
2023-09-30AC MilanLazioSerie A2-0
2023-05-06AC MilanLazioSerie A2-0
2023-01-24LazioAC MilanSerie A4-0
2022-04-24LazioAC MilanSerie A1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lazio vs AC Milan odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.5%, draw 29.7%, away 42.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.30 3.20 2.22
1xBet 3.66 3.29 2.28
Bet365 3.50 3.20 2.20
BetVictor 3.50 3.25 2.15
Betano 3.45 3.20 2.22
Betfair 3.60 3.10 2.20
Dafabet 3.30 3.20 2.36
Marathonbet 3.58 3.22 2.23
Pinnacle 3.63 3.18 2.25
SBO 3.25 2.99 2.14
Unibet 3.30 3.10 2.25
William Hill 3.30 3.00 2.20
sport888 3.00 3.00 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.50 —
X 3.20 ▲ +0.10
2 2.20 ▲ +0.15

27 snapshots recorded, from .