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Serie A · Full time ·Matchday 4

Lecce vs Monza

3 – 2 Full time

3′L. Coulibaly
10′Tiago Gabriel
20′R. Mangas
21′L. Coulibaly
38′K. Ndri
46′R. MangasA. Bakoune
46′K. NdriS. Pierotti
64′J. RobinsonP. Cutrone
64′A. ColpaniE. Zeballos
66′I. IlicO. Ngom
74′J. MonteiroA. Fatah
74′N. StulicP. Esteban
75′G. VarelaO. Forson
84′E. AkinsanmiroM. Mout
85′Y. MalehM. Kaba
89′E. Zeballos
90′D. Veiga

Via del Mare, LecceReferee: Valerio Crezzini, Italy

Lecce 30%
Draw 29%
Monza 41%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 19
3 Shots on target 11
39 Possession % 61
4 Corners 6
14 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 4
8 Saves 0
235 Accurate passes 406

Lecce vs Monza overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lecce vs Monza

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLecceDrawMonza
Model20.4%23.3%56.3%
Market32.7%31.1%36.1%
Final29.7%29.2%41.2%
Edge-12.4%-7.8%+20.2%

Confidence: Medium

Why Monza

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.33.
  • The market prices Monza below the model: +20.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lecce ↓ / Monza → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 5% 1 10% 9% 7% 7% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 5%

Lecce and Monza expected goals

Lecce 1.33
Monza 2.24

Total expected goals: 3.57

Lecce and Monza attack and defence ratings

Lecce

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.57 +57%

Monza

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lecce vs Monza: result vs prediction

Lecce 3 – 2 Monza

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

Lecce vs Monza markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Monza 41.2% 2.43 +20.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.2% 1.45 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.4% 1.48 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.8% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.7% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lecce29.7%
Draw29.2%
Monza41.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%
Both teams to scoreYes67.4%
No32.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.8%
12 (either side)70.8%
X2 (draw or away)70.3%
Handicap -1Monza win36.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss43.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
1-29.4%
0-27.1%

Lecce vs Monza stats

Lecce and Monza recent form

newest first
Lecce LLWLWW
Monza DWLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lecce vs Monza head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Lecce wins 5Draws 1Monza wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-02-16MonzaLecceSerie A0-0
2024-12-15LecceMonzaSerie A2-1
2024-04-27LecceMonzaSerie A1-1
2023-09-17MonzaLecceSerie A1-1
2023-05-28MonzaLecceSerie A0-1
2022-09-11LecceMonzaSerie A1-1
2022-02-27MonzaLecceSerie B0-1
2021-10-01LecceMonzaSerie B3-0
2021-05-04MonzaLecceSerie B1-0
2021-01-04LecceMonzaSerie B0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lecce vs Monza odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 30.6%, away 35.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.45 3.15 2.92
1xBet 3.04 3.12 2.73
Bet365 2.88 3.10 2.62
BetVictor 2.80 3.20 2.55
Betano 2.90 3.05 2.65
Betfair 2.90 3.00 2.63
Dafabet 2.60 3.15 2.90
Marathonbet 2.97 3.05 2.67
Pinnacle 3.01 3.05 2.68
SBO 2.50 2.94 2.56
Unibet 2.50 3.15 2.85
William Hill 2.80 2.88 2.62
winamax_fr 1.68 3.15 4.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +1.22
X 3.05 ▼ -0.10
2 2.63 ▼ -1.47

28 snapshots recorded, from .