Parma Calcio 1913
vs
Monza
1 – 1 Full time
| 38′ | J. Robinson | ||
| 41′ | Michael Folorunsho | ||
| 46′ | Diego CarlosL. Valenti | ||
| 46′ | C. OrdonezV. Sierro | ||
| 46′ | G. FabbianM. Frigan | ||
| 54′ | O. ForsonA. Colpani | ||
| 55′ | D. RomeroS. Lontani | ||
| 60′ | S. Lontani | ||
| 62′ | D. MotaL. Colombo | ||
| 66′ | Mandela Keita | ||
| 68′ | Leonardo Colombo | ||
| 77′ | S. BritschgiP. Almqvist | ||
| 81′ | E. KouadioA. Bakoune | ||
| 81′ | A. CarboniY. Maye | ||
| 81′ | J. RobinsonM. Mout | ||
| 83′ | Pontus Almqvist |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Offsides | 4 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 269 | Accurate passes | 346 |
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza
| Probability | Parma Calcio 1913 | Draw | Monza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.2% | 27.9% | 52.8% |
| Market | 35.0% | 31.5% | 33.4% |
| Final | 31.1% | 30.6% | 38.3% |
| Edge | -15.8% | -3.6% | +19.4% |
Why Monza
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Monza below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Monza expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Parma Calcio 1913 and Monza attack and defence ratings
Parma Calcio 1913
Monza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza: result vs prediction
Parma Calcio 1913 1 – 1 Monza
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 38.3% | 2.61 | +19.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 31.1% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Monza | 38.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monza win | 30.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 9.8% |
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza stats
Parma Calcio 1913 and Monza recent form
| Parma Calcio 1913 |
LLLWWL |
| Monza |
WLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Monza | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-28 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Monza | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-02 | Monza | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-17 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Monza | Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.7%, draw 31.0%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.48 | 3.10 | 2.92 |
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.06 | 2.99 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.15 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.76 | 2.99 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.79 | 3.01 | 2.92 |
| SBO | 2.38 | 2.89 | 2.74 |
| Superbet | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Unibet | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.75 |
| winamax_de | 1.80 | 3.35 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .