Inter
vs
Napoli
3 – 2 Full time
| 35′ | Antonio Vergara | ||
| 46′ | P. SucicC. Jones | ||
| 46′ | F. EspositoM. Thuram | ||
| 50′ | M. Politano | ||
| 53′ | R. Hojlund | ||
| 56′ | L. Martinez | ||
| 62′ | F. DimarcoCarlos Augusto | ||
| 62′ | A. VergaraK. De Bruyne | ||
| 62′ | M. PolitanoDavid Neres | ||
| 68′ | Lautaro Martínez | ||
| 72′ | P. ZielinskiH. Calhanoglu | ||
| 72′ | R. HojlundL. Lucca | ||
| 77′ | Rafa Marín | ||
| 79′ | A. BastoniA. Bonny | ||
| 79′ | S. LobotkaB. Gilmour | ||
| 80′ | Alisson SantosB. Badiashile | ||
| 82′ | M. Thuram | ||
| 90′ | L. Martinez |
Match stats
| 29 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 5 |
| 486 | Accurate passes | 265 |
Inter vs Napoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inter vs Napoli
| Probability | Inter | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.6% | 28.9% | 24.4% |
| Market | 56.9% | 25.0% | 18.1% |
| Final | 54.3% | 26.0% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -10.2% | +3.9% | +6.3% |
Why Inter
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inter and Napoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Inter and Napoli attack and defence ratings
Inter
Napoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Inter vs Napoli: result vs prediction
Inter 3 – 2 Napoli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inter vs Napoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 54.3% | 1.84 | -10.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 54.3% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Napoli | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% |
| No | 42.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 0-0 | 8.3% |
Inter vs Napoli stats
Inter vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Inter | Napoli | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Napoli | Inter | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Napoli | Inter | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Inter | Napoli | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Inter | Napoli | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-22 | Napoli | Inter | Super Cup | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Napoli | Inter | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2023-05-21 | Napoli | Inter | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2023-01-04 | Inter | Napoli | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2022-02-12 | Napoli | Inter | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Inter vs Napoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.1%, draw 25.2%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.94 | 5.48 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 3.85 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.88 | 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.86 | 5.32 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.37 | 4.69 |
| Superbet | 1.68 | 3.80 | 5.45 |
| Unibet | 1.63 | 3.65 | 5.40 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| unibet_fr | 1.65 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
21 snapshots recorded, from .