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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

Real Madrid vs Inter

2 – 1 Full time

14′K. Mbappe
23′F. Valverde
39′Hakan Çalhanoğlu
46′B. PavardJ. Stones
60′H. CalhanogluP. Zielinski
60′N. BarellaP. Sucic
60′M. ThuramA. Bonny
77′Carlos Augusto
79′Dean Huijsen
79′Lautaro Martínez
79′T. Alexander-ArnoldA. Tchouameni
79′B. DiazY. Diomande
83′Carlos AugustoH. Mkhitaryan
87′Vinicius JuniorA. Carreras
90′Yann Bisseck
90′K. MbappeC. Espi

Bernabéu, MadridReferee: Michael Oliver, England

Real Madrid 58%
Draw 22%
Inter 21%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 21
8 Shots on target 7
36 Possession % 64
4 Corners 11
12 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 4
7 Saves 6
305 Accurate passes 582

Real Madrid vs Inter overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs Inter

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal MadridDrawInter
Model52.2%22.8%25.0%
Market59.6%21.3%19.1%
Final57.7%21.7%20.6%
Edge-7.4%+1.5%+5.9%

Confidence: High

Why Real Madrid

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.42.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Madrid ↓ / Inter → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 10% 6% 2 7% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Real Madrid and Inter expected goals

Real Madrid 2.09
Inter 1.42

Total expected goals: 3.52

Real Madrid and Inter attack and defence ratings

Real Madrid

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Inter

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Real Madrid vs Inter: result vs prediction

Real Madrid 2 – 1 Inter

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Real Madrid vs Inter markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Madrid 57.7% 1.73 -7.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.2% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.4% 1.48 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.4% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.9% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Madrid57.7%
Draw21.7%
Inter20.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.2%
Under 2.531.8%
Both teams to scoreYes67.4%
No32.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.4%
12 (either side)78.3%
X2 (draw or away)42.3%
Handicap -1Real Madrid win31.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss47.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.7%
2-19.3%
2-26.6%

Real Madrid vs Inter stats

Real Madrid and Inter recent form

newest first
Real Madrid LWWWWW
Inter WWWDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Madrid vs Inter head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

4Real Madrid wins 0Draws 0Inter wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2021-12-07Real MadridInterUEFA Champions League2-0
2021-09-15InterReal MadridUEFA Champions League0-1
2020-11-25InterReal MadridUEFA Champions League0-2
2020-11-03Real MadridInterUEFA Champions League3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Madrid vs Inter odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.6%, draw 21.3%, away 19.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.61 4.50 4.40
1xBet 1.63 4.53 5.23
888Sport 1.60 4.20 4.80
Bet365 1.60 4.33 5.00
BetVictor 1.57 4.60 5.00
Betano 1.65 4.55 5.10
Betfair 1.57 4.50 5.00
Dafabet 1.64 4.50 4.80
Marathonbet 1.62 4.50 5.20
Pinnacle 1.62 4.39 5.23
SBO 1.60 4.08 4.42
Superbet 1.59 4.45 5.00
Unibet 1.58 4.40 5.10
William Hill 1.60 4.20 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▲ +0.02
X 4.47 ▲ +0.12
2 5.00 ▼ -0.22

14 snapshots recorded, from .