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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

4 – 1 Full time

14′Kylian Mbappé
17′Álvaro Fernández Carreras
35′Jude Bellingham
45′Federico ValverdeEduardo Camavinga
51′Sergio Camello
67′Gnangoro BouareÓscar Valentín
67′Pedro DíazRayane Belaid
69′Bernardo SilvaAurelien Tchouameni
72′Yan DiomandeArda Güler
75′Sergio CamelloAlexandre Zurawski
75′Unai LópezMujaid Sadick
76′Pathé Ciss
85′Adrià PedrosaIvan Balliu
89′ViníciusMarc Cucurella
90′Kylian Mbappé

Bernabéu, MadridReferee: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain

Real Madrid 81%
Draw 12%
Rayo Vallecano 6%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 18
11 Shots on target 7
56 Possession % 44
11 Corners 5
9 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0
6 Saves 7
494 Accurate passes 360

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal MadridDrawRayo Vallecano
Model72.4%18.0%9.6%
Market84.4%10.5%5.1%
Final81.4%12.3%6.3%
Edge-12.0%+7.6%+4.5%

Confidence: High

Why Real Madrid

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Madrid ↓ / Rayo Vallecano → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 8% 2 10% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 11% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano expected goals

Real Madrid 2.53
Rayo Vallecano 0.95

Total expected goals: 3.48

Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano attack and defence ratings

Real Madrid

Attack 1.50 +50%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Rayo Vallecano

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: result vs prediction

Real Madrid 4 – 1 Rayo Vallecano

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Madrid 81.4% 1.23 -12.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.8% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.3% 1.72 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 93.7% 1.07 — —
Handicap -1 Real Madrid win 52.7% 1.90 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Madrid81.4%
Draw12.3%
Rayo Vallecano6.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.8%
Under 2.530.2%
Both teams to scoreYes58.3%
No41.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)93.7%
12 (either side)87.7%
X2 (draw or away)18.6%
Handicap -1Real Madrid win52.7%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss27.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.6%
2-19.1%
3-08.5%

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano stats

Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano recent form

newest first
Real Madrid WLWWWW
Rayo Vallecano WLDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Real Madrid wins 4Draws 1Rayo Vallecano wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-01Real MadridRayo VallecanoLa Liga2-1
2025-11-09Rayo VallecanoReal MadridLa Liga0-0
2025-03-09Real MadridRayo VallecanoLa Liga2-1
2024-12-14Rayo VallecanoReal MadridLa Liga3-3
2024-02-18Rayo VallecanoReal MadridLa Liga1-1
2023-11-05Real MadridRayo VallecanoLa Liga0-0
2023-05-24Real MadridRayo VallecanoLa Liga2-1
2022-11-07Rayo VallecanoReal MadridLa Liga3-2
2022-02-26Rayo VallecanoReal MadridLa Liga0-1
2021-11-06Real MadridRayo VallecanoLa Liga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 84.3%, draw 10.4%, away 5.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.13 7.70 17.50
1xBet 1.16 9.50 20.00
Bet365 1.12 8.50 17.00
BetVictor 1.10 10.00 21.00
Betano 1.18 8.00 19.00
Betfair 1.13 9.50 18.00
Dafabet 1.13 9.20 18.00
Marathonbet 1.15 9.20 19.00
Pinnacle 1.14 9.50 18.74
SBO 1.13 7.91 13.00
Unibet 1.13 9.00 17.00
William Hill 1.15 8.00 15.00
onexbet 1.17 9.30 19.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.14 ▼ -0.10
X 9.20 ▲ +2.03
2 18.74 ▲ +4.64

47 snapshots recorded, from .