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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Racing Santander vs Alaves

2 – 1 Full time

7′Nahuel Tenaglia
8′Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras
18′Ville Koski
35′Yassir Zabiri
38′Yassir Zabiri
45′Pablo Ibanez LumbrerasCarlos Protesoni
45′Nahuel TenagliaNicolas Valentini
53′Yassir Zabiri
62′Antonio Blanco
62′Jorge Salinas Viadero
65′Pablo GarcíaAndré Almeida
67′Antonio BlancoCarles Aleñá
67′Mariano DíazToni Martínez
74′Yassir ZabiriGiorgi Guliashvili
74′Sergio CanalesIker Luque
83′Matteo PratiMaguette Gueye
83′Iñigo VicenteAsier Villalibre
86′Angel Pérez HidalgoAitor Mañas
89′André Almeida
90′Giorgi GuliashviliPedro Felipe
90′Aitor MañasMiguel Rodríguez

El Sardinero, SantanderReferee: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

Racing Santander 42%
Draw 26%
Alaves 32%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 8
57 Possession % 43
4 Corners 6
16 Fouls 17
2 Offsides 9
7 Saves 2
353 Accurate passes 250

Racing Santander vs Alaves overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Racing Santander vs Alaves

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRacing SantanderDrawAlaves
Model51.9%24.1%24.0%
Market38.7%27.2%34.0%
Final42.0%26.4%31.5%
Edge+13.2%-3.1%-10.0%

Confidence: Medium

Why Racing Santander

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.45.
  • The market prices Racing Santander below the model: +13.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Racing Santand ↓ / Alaves → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Racing Santander and Alaves expected goals

Racing Santander 2.05
Alaves 1.45

Total expected goals: 3.50

Racing Santander and Alaves attack and defence ratings

Racing Santander

Attack 1.51 +51%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Alaves

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Racing Santander vs Alaves: result vs prediction

Racing Santander 2 – 1 Alaves

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Racing Santander vs Alaves markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Racing Santander 42.0% 2.38 +13.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.8% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.4% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.6% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.1% 2.08 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Racing Santander42.0%
Draw26.4%
Alaves31.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.8%
Under 2.530.2%
Both teams to scoreYes69.4%
No30.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.5%
12 (either side)73.6%
X2 (draw or away)58.0%
Handicap -1Racing Santander win32.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss48.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.2%
2-19.1%
2-26.6%

Racing Santander vs Alaves stats

Racing Santander and Alaves recent form

newest first
Racing Santander LWLDWD
Alaves WWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Racing Santander vs Alaves head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

0Racing Santander wins 3Draws 2Alaves wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-07Racing SantanderAlavesFriendlies Clubs1-1
2024-07-17Racing SantanderAlavesFriendlies Clubs0-0
2023-07-22Racing SantanderAlavesFriendlies Clubs1-2
2023-01-21AlavesRacing SantanderSegunda División3-0
2022-11-01Racing SantanderAlavesSegunda División1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Racing Santander vs Alaves odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 27.2%, away 34.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.30 3.50 2.86
1xBet 2.56 3.66 2.84
Bet365 2.40 3.50 2.80
BetVictor 2.40 3.60 2.75
Betano 2.42 3.50 2.85
Betfair 2.50 3.40 2.80
Dafabet 2.50 3.50 2.80
Marathonbet 2.52 3.60 2.80
Pinnacle 2.46 3.57 2.89
SBO 2.47 3.08 2.49
Unibet 2.43 3.40 2.80
William Hill 2.40 3.40 2.75
codere_it 2.60 3.50 2.65
tipico_de 2.30 3.50 2.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.46 ▼ -0.09
X 3.50 ▲ +0.10
2 2.80 ▲ +0.05

51 snapshots recorded, from .