La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Alaves
vs
Valencia
0 – 1 Full time
| 21′ | Javi Guerra | ||
| 21′ | Antonio Blanco | ||
| 45′ | José Luis García Vayá | ||
| 52′ | Aaron Mayol | ||
| 61′ | Guido Rodríguez | ||
| 63′ | Hugo DuroLuis Rioja | ||
| 67′ | Toni MartínezMariano Díaz | ||
| 67′ | Denis SuárezYoussef Enriquez | ||
| 70′ | Guido RodríguezDavid Otorbi Ejededawe | ||
| 78′ | Luis Rioja | ||
| 82′ | Luis RiojaJesús Vázquez | ||
| 82′ | Justin De HaasIker Córdoba | ||
| 82′ | Pablo MaffeoArnau Martínez López | ||
| 85′ | Angel Pérez HidalgoCarles Aleñá | ||
| 85′ | Antonio BlancoAnder Guevara | ||
| 85′ | Abderrahmane RebbachMiguel Rodríguez |
Alaves
59%
Draw
25%
Valencia
15%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 269 | Accurate passes | 388 |
Alaves vs Valencia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alaves vs Valencia
| Probability | Alaves | Draw | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.8% | 21.9% | 11.3% |
| Market | 56.5% | 26.7% | 16.8% |
| Final | 59.1% | 25.5% | 15.5% |
| Edge | +10.3% | -4.8% | -5.6% |
Why Alaves
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Alaves below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
6%
Alaves and Valencia expected goals
Alaves
2.13
Valencia
0.86
Total expected goals: 2.99
Alaves and Valencia attack and defence ratings
Alaves
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
0.88 -12%
Valencia
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.16 +16%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alaves vs Valencia: result vs prediction
Alaves 0 – 1 Valencia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo
- Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol — team news & stats
- Elche v Real Madrid — match page
- Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — match page
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
- Barcelona vs Racing Santander — team news & stats
- Real Betis vs Getafe — team news & stats
- Malaga v Villarreal — match page
Before and after this match
Alaves vs Valencia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 59.1% | 1.69 | +10.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 59.1% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Valencia | 15.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% |
| No | 46.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win | 45.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 33.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.3% |
| 1-1 | 10.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
Alaves vs Valencia stats
Alaves and Valencia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alaves and Valencia going into this match
Alaves record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valencia record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Alaves vs Valencia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Alaves wins
2Draws
3Valencia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Valencia | Alaves | La Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-20 | Alaves | Valencia | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-14 | Alaves | Valencia | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-22 | Valencia | Alaves | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2024-07-24 | Valencia | Alaves | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-05 | Valencia | Alaves | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-02 | Alaves | Valencia | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-29 | Valencia | Alaves | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2022-02-13 | Alaves | Valencia | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2021-08-27 | Valencia | Alaves | La Liga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alaves vs Valencia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.5%, draw 27.5%, away 18.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.24 | 3.00 | 3.45 |
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.70 | 5.70 |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.60 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.15 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.60 | 5.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.69 | 5.76 |
| SBO | 1.73 | 3.36 | 4.53 |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.05 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| onexbet | 2.04 | 3.29 | 4.51 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.70 ▼ -0.59
X
3.60 ▲ +0.29
2
5.70 ▲ +2.08
32 snapshots recorded, from .