La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Valencia
vs
Real Sociedad
2 – 3 Full time
| 11′ | Justin De Haas | ||
| 12′ | José Gayà | ||
| 26′ | Luka Sučić | ||
| 45′ | Filip UgrinicDavid Otorbi Ejededawe | ||
| 54′ | Luka Sučić | ||
| 57′ | Aaron Mayol | ||
| 61′ | Mikel OyarzabalOrri Steinn Óskarsson | ||
| 61′ | Job OchiengAnder Barrenetxea | ||
| 69′ | Jon GorrotxategiYangel Herrera | ||
| 69′ | Sergio GómezAihen Muñoz | ||
| 69′ | Guido RodríguezHarvey Elliott | ||
| 75′ | Carlos Soler | ||
| 82′ | José GayàJesús Vázquez | ||
| 82′ | Hugo DuroAimar Blázquez Labraca | ||
| 84′ | Luken Beitia Aguirregomezcorta | ||
| 87′ | Luka SučićArsen Zakharyan | ||
| 88′ | Arnaut DanjumaLuis Rioja | ||
| 90′ | Ander Barrenetxea | ||
| 90′ | Orri Steinn Óskarsson | ||
| 90′ | Orri Steinn Óskarsson |
Valencia
38%
Draw
28%
Real Sociedad
34%
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 21 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 357 | Accurate passes | 304 |
Valencia vs Real Sociedad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Valencia vs Real Sociedad
| Probability | Valencia | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.8% | 27.5% | 23.7% |
| Market | 34.2% | 28.2% | 37.6% |
| Final | 37.9% | 28.0% | 34.1% |
| Edge | +14.6% | -0.7% | -13.9% |
Why Valencia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.21.
- The market prices Valencia below the model: +14.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
82%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
7%
Valencia and Real Sociedad expected goals
Valencia
1.71
Real Sociedad
1.21
Total expected goals: 2.92
Valencia and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings
Valencia
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Real Sociedad
Attack
0.92 -8%
Defence
1.30 +30%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Valencia vs Real Sociedad: result vs prediction
Valencia 2 – 3 Real Sociedad
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Valencia vs Real Sociedad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valencia | 37.9% | 2.64 | +14.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valencia | 37.9% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Real Sociedad | 34.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Valencia win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Valencia vs Real Sociedad stats
Valencia and Real Sociedad recent form
| Valencia |
WLLLLD |
| Real Sociedad |
LLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Valencia and Real Sociedad going into this match
Valencia record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Real Sociedad record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Valencia vs Real Sociedad head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Valencia wins
4Draws
3Real Sociedad wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Real Sociedad | Valencia | La Liga | 3-4 |
| 2025-08-16 | Valencia | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-19 | Valencia | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Real Sociedad | Valencia | La Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-16 | Real Sociedad | Valencia | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-27 | Valencia | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-02-25 | Valencia | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2022-11-06 | Real Sociedad | Valencia | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-06 | Valencia | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2021-11-21 | Real Sociedad | Valencia | La Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Valencia vs Real Sociedad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 28.2%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.88 | 3.49 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.86 | 3.39 | 2.61 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.22 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.80 ▲ +0.07
X
3.40 ▲ +0.02
2
2.55 ▲ +0.04
14 snapshots recorded, from .