La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Osasuna
vs
Rayo Vallecano
1 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | Ante Budimir | ||
| 21′ | Asier Osambela | ||
| 24′ | Pathé Ciss | ||
| 50′ | Sergio Camello | ||
| 56′ | Enrique Barja AlfonsoRaul Moro | ||
| 56′ | Diego RicoAbel Bretones | ||
| 60′ | Óscar ValentínPedro Díaz | ||
| 67′ | Jon Moncayola | ||
| 69′ | Jon MoncayolaLucas Torró | ||
| 69′ | Rubén GarcíaJonathan Dubasin | ||
| 71′ | Jorge De FrutosGeorgiy Tsitaishvili | ||
| 71′ | Sergio CamelloAlexandre Zurawski | ||
| 73′ | Unai SantosRaul García | ||
| 77′ | Sergio Herrera | ||
| 87′ | Unai LópezGnangoro Bouare | ||
| 87′ | Álvaro GarcíaIvan Balliu | ||
| 90′ | Alexandre Zurawski |
Osasuna
40%
Draw
28%
Rayo Vallecano
32%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 37 | Possession % | 63 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 188 | Accurate passes | 395 |
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
| Probability | Osasuna | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 26.7% | 25.2% |
| Market | 37.3% | 28.8% | 33.9% |
| Final | 40.0% | 28.3% | 31.8% |
| Edge | +10.8% | -2.1% | -8.7% |
Why Osasuna
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.32.
- The market prices Osasuna below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
62%
No goals
6%
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano expected goals
Osasuna
1.77
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Total expected goals: 3.09
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano attack and defence ratings
Osasuna
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.17 +17%
Rayo Vallecano
Attack
0.98 -2%
Defence
1.12 +12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: result vs prediction
Osasuna 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 40.0% | 2.50 | +10.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 40.0% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Rayo Vallecano | 31.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% |
| No | 36.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Osasuna win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano stats
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano recent form
| Osasuna |
LLLWWD |
| Rayo Vallecano |
WLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano going into this match
Osasuna record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rayo Vallecano record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Osasuna wins
1Draws
3Rayo Vallecano wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | La Liga | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-19 | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-16 | Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-20 | Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-15 | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-14 | Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-09-04 | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-02-12 | Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | La Liga | 0-3 |
| 2021-10-02 | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.3%, draw 28.8%, away 33.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 3.38 | 2.91 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 3.30 | 2.83 |
| Pinnacle | 2.65 | 3.33 | 2.81 |
| SBO | 2.36 | 2.98 | 2.69 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.55 ▲ +0.46
X
3.30 ▲ +0.07
2
2.80 ▼ -0.93
12 snapshots recorded, from .