La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Atletico Madrid
vs
Real Madrid
2 – 1 Full time
| 6′ | Diego Pablo Simeone | ||
| 35′ | Marc Pubill | ||
| 38′ | Cristian Romero | ||
| 45′ | Marc PubillKoke | ||
| 49′ | Denzel Dumfries | ||
| 52′ | Dean Huijsen | ||
| 53′ | Alejandro Grimaldo | ||
| 54′ | Arda GülerAntonio Rüdiger | ||
| 54′ | ViníciusYan Diomande | ||
| 59′ | Jonathan David | ||
| 62′ | Jonathan DavidJulián Álvarez | ||
| 67′ | Alejandro Baena RodríguezAdemola Lookman | ||
| 71′ | Aurelien TchouameniEduardo Camavinga | ||
| 78′ | Jude Bellingham | ||
| 82′ | Jude BellinghamBernardo Silva | ||
| 89′ | Cristian RomeroRobin Le Normand | ||
| 89′ | Lee Kang-InMorten Hjulmand | ||
| 89′ | Antonio Rüdiger |
Atletico Madrid
29%
Draw
25%
Real Madrid
46%
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 556 | Accurate passes | 337 |
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
| Probability | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.1% | 24.4% | 39.6% |
| Market | 27.3% | 25.1% | 47.5% |
| Final | 29.5% | 25.0% | 45.6% |
| Edge | +8.8% | -0.8% | -8.0% |
Why Real Madrid
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
74%
No goals
4%
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid expected goals
Atletico Madrid
1.78
Real Madrid
1.96
Total expected goals: 3.74
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid attack and defence ratings
Atletico Madrid
Attack
1.30 +30%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Real Madrid
Attack
1.64 +64%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: result vs prediction
Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Real Madrid
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 45.6% | 2.20 | -8.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 29.5% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Real Madrid | 45.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% |
| No | 25.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 60.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid stats
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid recent form
| Atletico Madrid |
WWLLWD |
| Real Madrid |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid going into this match
Atletico Madrid record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Madrid record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Atletico Madrid wins
3Draws
4Real Madrid wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 3-2 |
| 2026-01-08 | Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | Super Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | La Liga | 5-2 |
| 2025-03-12 | Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-04 | Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-18 | Atletico Madrid | Real Madrid | Copa del Rey | 4-2 |
| 2024-01-10 | Real Madrid | Atletico Madrid | Super Cup | 5-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.3%, draw 25.1%, away 47.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.66 | 3.86 | 2.07 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.90 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.85 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.60 | 3.80 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.48 | 3.81 | 2.06 |
| SBO | 3.09 | 3.47 | 2.01 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.50 ▼ -0.24
X
3.80 ▼ -0.05
2
2.01 ▲ +0.15
13 snapshots recorded, from .