Elche
vs
Real Madrid
2 – 3 Full time
| 4′ | Yan Diomande | ||
| 25′ | Matías Dituro | ||
| 31′ | Marc Aguado | ||
| 33′ | Kylian Mbappé | ||
| 58′ | Marc AguadoLucas Cepeda | ||
| 58′ | Germán ValeraThomas Lemar | ||
| 68′ | ViníciusBrahim Díaz | ||
| 68′ | Arda GülerJude Bellingham | ||
| 68′ | Buba SangaréRuben Sanchez Saez | ||
| 68′ | Martim NetoFernando Niño Rodríguez | ||
| 71′ | Abiel Alessio Osorio | ||
| 73′ | Ibrahima Konaté | ||
| 78′ | Lucas Cepeda | ||
| 80′ | Tete MorenteJosé Antonio Ferrández Pomares | ||
| 83′ | Fernando Niño Rodríguez | ||
| 86′ | Aurelien TchouameniEndrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa | ||
| 87′ | Trent Alexander-ArnoldCarlos Espí | ||
| 90′ | Carlos Espí | ||
| 90′ | Yan DiomandeDenzel Dumfries | ||
| 90′ | José Antonio Ferrández Pomares | ||
| 90′ | Gonzalo Villar |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 5 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 493 | Accurate passes | 383 |
Elche vs Real Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Elche vs Real Madrid
| Probability | Elche | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.1% | 23.4% | 54.5% |
| Market | 7.2% | 12.8% | 80.0% |
| Final | 11.0% | 15.4% | 73.6% |
| Edge | +14.9% | +10.6% | -25.5% |
Why Real Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Elche and Real Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.59
Elche and Real Madrid attack and defence ratings
Elche
Real Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Elche vs Real Madrid: result vs prediction
Elche 2 – 3 Real Madrid
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Elche vs Real Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 73.6% | 1.36 | -25.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 11.0% |
| Draw | 15.4% | |
| Real Madrid | 73.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% |
| No | 30.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 26.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 89.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 34.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 45.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 1-3 | 6.8% |
Elche vs Real Madrid stats
Elche and Real Madrid recent form
| Elche |
DLLLDD |
| Real Madrid |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Elche and Real Madrid going into this match
Elche record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Real Madrid record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Elche vs Real Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Real Madrid | Elche | La Liga | 4-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Elche | Real Madrid | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2023-02-15 | Real Madrid | Elche | La Liga | 4-0 |
| 2022-10-19 | Elche | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-3 |
| 2022-01-23 | Real Madrid | Elche | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2022-01-20 | Elche | Real Madrid | Copa del Rey | 1-2 |
| 2021-10-30 | Elche | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2021-03-13 | Real Madrid | Elche | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2020-12-30 | Elche | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2015-02-22 | Elche | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Elche vs Real Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 8.3%, draw 13.8%, away 77.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 10.25 | 5.75 | 1.25 |
| 1xBet | 13.40 | 7.80 | 1.23 |
| 888Sport | 8.50 | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| Bet365 | 12.00 | 7.50 | 1.20 |
| BetVictor | 13.00 | 8.00 | 1.17 |
| Betano | 13.50 | 7.00 | 1.24 |
| Betfair | 14.00 | 7.50 | 1.18 |
| Dafabet | 8.60 | 5.40 | 1.33 |
| Marathonbet | 13.25 | 7.70 | 1.21 |
| Pinnacle | 13.67 | 7.52 | 1.20 |
| SBO | 10.12 | 6.76 | 1.18 |
| Unibet | 9.00 | 5.60 | 1.29 |
| William Hill | 11.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 |
| onexbet | 9.55 | 5.84 | 1.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
32 snapshots recorded, from .