Garuda Lions
Today
La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Athletic Club vs Elche

1 – 1 Full time

50′Facundo Buonanotte
56′Federico Redondo Solari
65′Jesus AresoJohaneko Louis-Jean
65′Iñigo Ruiz De GalarretaMikel Jauregizar
69′Fernando Niño RodríguezAbiel Alessio Osorio
69′Facundo BuonanotteThomas Lemar
72′Robert Navarro MuñozAlex Berenguer
75′Abiel Alessio Osorio
76′Tete MorenteRuben Sanchez Saez
79′Iñaki Williams
81′Alex Berenguer
81′Beñat Gerenabarrena
81′Iñaki WilliamsMaroan Sannadi
82′Germán ValeraLucas Cepeda
83′Gonzalo VillarMartim Neto
90′Ruben Sanchez Saez
90′Yuri Berchiche

San Mamés, BilbaoReferee: Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain

Athletic Club 64%
Draw 21%
Elche 15%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 3
3 Shots on target 1
66 Possession % 34
7 Corners 1
11 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 2
0 Saves 2
542 Accurate passes 246

Athletic Club vs Elche overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Elche

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAthletic ClubDrawElche
Model54.2%24.9%20.9%
Market67.5%19.8%12.8%
Final64.2%21.0%14.8%
Edge-13.3%+5.2%+8.1%

Confidence: High

Why Athletic Club

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.25.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Athletic Club ↓ / Elche → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 6%

Athletic Club and Elche expected goals

Athletic Club 1.96
Elche 1.25

Total expected goals: 3.21

Athletic Club and Elche attack and defence ratings

Athletic Club

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Elche

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Athletic Club vs Elche: result vs prediction

Athletic Club 1 – 1 Elche

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Athletic Club vs Elche markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Athletic Club 64.2% 1.56 -13.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.2% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.1% 1.56 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.2% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.8% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Athletic Club64.2%
Draw21.0%
Elche14.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.2%
Under 2.535.8%
Both teams to scoreYes64.1%
No35.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.2%
12 (either side)79.0%
X2 (draw or away)35.8%
Handicap -1Athletic Club win33.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss45.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.7%
2-07.8%

Athletic Club vs Elche stats

Athletic Club and Elche recent form

newest first
Athletic Club WWLLLD
Elche LLLDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Athletic Club vs Elche head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Athletic Club wins 3Draws 2Elche wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-20Athletic ClubElcheLa Liga2-1
2025-10-19ElcheAthletic ClubLa Liga0-0
2023-05-28Athletic ClubElcheLa Liga0-1
2022-09-11ElcheAthletic ClubLa Liga1-4
2022-04-03Athletic ClubElcheLa Liga2-1
2021-08-16ElcheAthletic ClubLa Liga0-0
2021-05-22ElcheAthletic ClubLa Liga2-0
2021-01-03Athletic ClubElcheLa Liga1-0
2020-01-22ElcheAthletic ClubCopa del Rey1-1
2015-05-17ElcheAthletic ClubLa Liga2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Athletic Club vs Elche odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.3%, draw 20.4%, away 13.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.50 4.20 6.00
1xBet 1.45 5.02 7.80
Bet365 1.42 4.75 7.50
BetVictor 1.40 4.75 7.50
Betano 1.47 4.85 7.20
Betfair 1.40 5.00 7.50
Dafabet 1.49 4.50 6.40
Marathonbet 1.43 4.95 7.70
Pinnacle 1.43 4.87 7.78
SBO 1.36 4.50 7.24
Unibet 1.47 4.35 6.50
William Hill 1.40 4.60 7.00
codere_it 1.61 3.95 5.60
tipico_de 1.57 4.10 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.42 ▼ -0.19
X 4.85 ▲ +0.90
2 7.50 ▲ +1.90

28 snapshots recorded, from .