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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

0 – 3 Full time

18′Yangel Herrera
59′Alejandro Baena RodríguezJohnny Cardoso
60′Marcos LlorenteJonathan David
60′Lee Kang-InKoke
72′Pellegrino Matarazzo
72′Ander BarrenetxeaJob Ochieng
72′Gonçalo GuedesTakefusa Kubo
75′Johnny Cardoso
76′Ademola LookmanArnau Ortiz
78′Carlos SolerJon Gorrotxategi
78′Mikel Oyarzabal
79′Mikel OyarzabalOrri Steinn Óskarsson
84′Alejandro Grimaldo
85′Yangel HerreraArsen Zakharyan
90′Jonathan David
90′Giuliano Simeone Baldini

Reale Arena, San SebastianReferee: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain

Real Sociedad 34%
Draw 26%
Atletico Madrid 40%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 5
54 Possession % 46
9 Corners 3
13 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
2 Saves 3
450 Accurate passes 373

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal SociedadDrawAtletico Madrid
Model49.9%24.7%25.4%
Market29.1%26.3%44.6%
Final34.3%25.9%39.8%
Edge+20.8%-1.6%-19.2%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Sociedad ↓ / Atletico Madri → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 5%

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid expected goals

Real Sociedad 1.97
Atletico Madrid 1.47

Total expected goals: 3.44

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings

Real Sociedad

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Atletico Madrid

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: result vs prediction

Real Sociedad 0 – 3 Atletico Madrid

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Madrid 39.8% 2.51 -19.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.7% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.0% 1.45 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.4% 1.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Sociedad34.3%
Draw25.9%
Atletico Madrid39.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%
Both teams to scoreYes69.0%
No31.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.2%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)65.7%
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win12.3%
Push (exactly one goal)13.3%
Loss74.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
2-19.1%
2-26.7%

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid stats

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid recent form

newest first
Real Sociedad WDWLLD
Atletico Madrid LLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid going into this match

league record before kick-off

Real Sociedad record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

0Real Sociedad wins 4Draws 5Atletico Madrid wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18Atletico MadridReal SociedadCopa del Rey2-2
2026-03-07Atletico MadridReal SociedadLa Liga3-2
2026-01-04Real SociedadAtletico MadridLa Liga1-1
2025-05-10Atletico MadridReal SociedadLa Liga4-0
2024-10-06Real SociedadAtletico MadridLa Liga1-1
2024-05-25Real SociedadAtletico MadridLa Liga0-2
2023-10-08Atletico MadridReal SociedadLa Liga2-1
2023-08-03Atletico MadridReal SociedadFriendlies Clubs0-0
2023-05-28Atletico MadridReal SociedadLa Liga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.7%, draw 26.4%, away 43.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.00 3.55 2.20
1xBet 3.38 3.76 2.21
Bet365 3.20 3.70 2.10
BetVictor 3.30 3.60 2.10
Betano 3.20 3.65 2.15
Betfair 3.40 3.60 2.15
Dafabet 2.90 3.60 2.35
Marathonbet 3.32 3.70 2.17
Pinnacle 3.43 3.68 2.15
SBO 2.72 3.29 2.18
Unibet 2.95 3.50 2.25
William Hill 3.20 3.40 2.10
onexbet 3.19 3.72 2.31

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.30 ▲ +0.15
X 3.65 ▼ -0.07
2 2.15 ▼ -0.18

30 snapshots recorded, from .