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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid

2 – 1 Full time

17′M. Llorente
28′Alexis Mac Allister
40′D. Szoboszlai
50′A. Mac Allister
51′Marc Pubill
59′Lee Kang-InA. Grimaldo
59′KokeA. Lookman
60′R. NgumohaJ. Frimpong
60′B. BarcolaV. Munoz
69′A. Mac AllisterR. Gravenberch
73′A. BaenaJ. David
77′C. RomeroR. Le Normand
77′P. BarriosM. Hjulmand
88′M. KerkezK. Tsimikas
88′A. IsakL. Koumas

Anfield, LiverpoolReferee: Davide Massa, Italy

Liverpool 53%
Draw 24%
Atletico Madrid 23%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 4
45 Possession % 55
7 Corners 5
11 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 5
3 Saves 3
354 Accurate passes 438

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLiverpoolDrawAtletico Madrid
Model49.4%24.3%26.3%
Market54.5%23.9%21.6%
Final53.3%24.0%22.8%
Edge-5.1%+0.4%+4.7%

Confidence: High

Why Liverpool

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.35.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Liverpool ↓ / Atletico Madri → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Liverpool and Atletico Madrid expected goals

Liverpool 1.91
Atletico Madrid 1.35

Total expected goals: 3.26

Liverpool and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings

Liverpool

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Atletico Madrid

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid: result vs prediction

Liverpool 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Liverpool 53.3% 1.88 -5.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.3% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.2% 1.56 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.2% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.4% 1.99 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Liverpool53.3%
Draw24.0%
Atletico Madrid22.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%
Both teams to scoreYes64.2%
No35.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.2%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)46.7%
Handicap -1Liverpool win28.8%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss50.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.9%
2-19.4%
2-07.0%

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid stats

Liverpool and Atletico Madrid recent form

newest first
Liverpool WDDDLD
Atletico Madrid LWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3Liverpool wins 0Draws 2Atletico Madrid wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-09-17LiverpoolAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League3-2
2021-11-03LiverpoolAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League2-0
2021-10-19Atletico MadridLiverpoolUEFA Champions League2-3
2020-03-11LiverpoolAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League2-3
2020-02-18Atletico MadridLiverpoolUEFA Champions League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.5%, draw 23.9%, away 21.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.71 3.95 4.33
1xBet 1.79 4.16 4.62
888Sport 1.75 3.80 4.20
Bet365 1.75 3.90 4.50
BetVictor 1.73 4.10 4.33
Betano 1.83 4.05 4.30
Betfair 1.75 4.00 4.60
Dafabet 1.73 4.00 4.70
Marathonbet 1.76 4.10 4.55
Pinnacle 1.76 4.01 4.64
SBO 1.73 3.94 4.11
Superbet 1.80 3.90 4.15
Unibet 1.73 4.00 4.50
William Hill 1.75 3.80 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▲ +0.02
X 4.00 —
2 4.42 ▼ -0.04

10 snapshots recorded, from .