Club Brugge KV
vs
Aston Villa
2 – 3 Full time
| 9′ | Ian Maatsen | ||
| 11′ | J. McGinn | ||
| 19′ | H. Vetlesen | ||
| 22′ | E. Buendia | ||
| 43′ | N. Jackson | ||
| 46′ | K. SabbeH. Siquet | ||
| 48′ | Hans Vanaken | ||
| 61′ | N. Tresoldi | ||
| 62′ | Jan Virgili | ||
| 68′ | A. Wan-BissakaL. Bogarde | ||
| 68′ | B. KamaraR. Barkley | ||
| 68′ | E. BuendiaAlysson | ||
| 77′ | H. VetlesenC. Tsawa | ||
| 77′ | H. VanakenF. Lemarechal | ||
| 78′ | John McGinn | ||
| 81′ | N. JacksonT. Abraham | ||
| 86′ | F. PottsR. Vermant | ||
| 86′ | J. VirgiliM. Diakhon | ||
| 88′ | Romeo Vermant | ||
| 89′ | João Gomes |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 21 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 5 |
| 532 | Accurate passes | 280 |
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa
| Probability | Club Brugge KV | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.1% | 18.4% | 9.6% |
| Market | 38.1% | 26.5% | 35.4% |
| Final | 46.6% | 24.5% | 28.9% |
| Edge | +34.0% | -8.2% | -25.8% |
Why Club Brugge KV
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Club Brugge KV below the model: +34.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Brugge KV and Aston Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Club Brugge KV and Aston Villa attack and defence ratings
Club Brugge KV
Aston Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa: result vs prediction
Club Brugge KV 2 – 3 Aston Villa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Brugge KV | 46.6% | 2.15 | +34.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Club Brugge KV win | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Brugge KV | 46.6% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Aston Villa | 28.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Brugge KV win | 49.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 27.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 3-0 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa stats
Club Brugge KV and Aston Villa recent form
| Club Brugge KV |
WLWWWW |
| Aston Villa |
DLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-12 | Aston Villa | Club Brugge KV | UEFA Champions League | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-04 | Club Brugge KV | Aston Villa | UEFA Champions League | 1-3 |
| 2024-11-06 | Club Brugge KV | Aston Villa | UEFA Champions League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 26.5%, away 35.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.54 | 3.55 | 2.54 |
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.68 | 2.77 |
| 888Sport | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 3.66 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | 3.67 | 2.79 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.52 |
| Superbet | 2.52 | 3.45 | 2.72 |
| Unibet | 2.50 | 3.55 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .