Aston Villa
vs
Nottingham Forest
1 – 2 Full time
| 25′ | Pau TorresTyrone Mings | ||
| 43′ | Dan Ndoye | ||
| 45′ | Nicolas Jackson | ||
| 45′ | Murillo Santiago | ||
| 45′ | Nicolas JacksonTammy Abraham | ||
| 45′ | George Hemmings Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha | ||
| 46′ | Liam Delap | ||
| 56′ | Xaver Schlager | ||
| 63′ | Emiliano BuendíaIbrahim Mbaye | ||
| 63′ | Ross BarkleyJohan Manzambi | ||
| 74′ | Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha | ||
| 75′ | Liam Delap | ||
| 75′ | Dan NdoyeIgor Jesus | ||
| 80′ | James Mcatee | ||
| 82′ | James McateeIbrahim Sangaré | ||
| 88′ | Igor Jesus | ||
| 90′ | Liam DelapChris Wood | ||
| 90′ | Tyrone Mings |
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Offsides | 4 |
| 5 | Saves | 5 |
| 341 | Accurate passes | 308 |
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
| Probability | Aston Villa | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.4% | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| Market | 41.8% | 28.7% | 29.6% |
| Final | 46.7% | 26.9% | 26.4% |
| Edge | +19.7% | -7.2% | -12.5% |
Why Aston Villa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aston Villa below the model: +19.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest attack and defence ratings
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: result vs prediction
Aston Villa 1 – 2 Nottingham Forest
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 46.7% | 2.14 | +19.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 46.7% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Nottingham Forest | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win | 40.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 38.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest stats
Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest recent form
| Aston Villa |
WDLLWW |
| Nottingham Forest |
DDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | UEFA Europa League | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-14 | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 4-2 |
| 2023-11-05 | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-08 | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-10 | Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.7%, draw 28.2%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.46 | 3.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 3.11 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| tipico_de | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .