Coventry
vs
Aston Villa
1 – 3 Full time
| 7′ | Tammy Abraham | ||
| 12′ | Aurele AmendaEthan Pinnock | ||
| 23′ | Stephen Mfuni | ||
| 26′ | Ross Barkley | ||
| 27′ | Victor Torp | ||
| 40′ | Ross Barkley | ||
| 43′ | Aaron Wan-Bissaka | ||
| 45′ | Marco BizotZion Suzuki | ||
| 46′ | Caleb Yirenkyi | ||
| 57′ | Tatsuhiro SakamotoLoum Tchaouna | ||
| 58′ | Sidiki CherifEllis Simms | ||
| 59′ | Tammy Abraham | ||
| 64′ | John McGinnJohan Manzambi | ||
| 64′ | Ibrahim MbayeEmiliano Buendía | ||
| 69′ | Tammy AbrahamNicolas Jackson | ||
| 73′ | Caleb YirenkyiFrank Onyeka | ||
| 73′ | Stephen MfuniJake Bidwell | ||
| 79′ | George Hemmings Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha | ||
| 87′ | Frank Onyeka | ||
| 90′ | Emiliano Buendía |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 4 |
| 317 | Accurate passes | 448 |
Coventry vs Aston Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coventry vs Aston Villa
| Probability | Coventry | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.9% | 23.7% | 45.3% |
| Market | 29.7% | 25.7% | 44.6% |
| Final | 30.0% | 25.2% | 44.8% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -2.0% | +0.7% |
Why Aston Villa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.59.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coventry and Aston Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Coventry and Aston Villa attack and defence ratings
Coventry
Aston Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Coventry vs Aston Villa: result vs prediction
Coventry 1 – 3 Aston Villa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coventry vs Aston Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 44.8% | 2.23 | +0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coventry | 30.0% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Aston Villa | 44.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win | 25.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 54.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Coventry vs Aston Villa stats
Coventry and Aston Villa recent form
| Coventry |
LLLWLW |
| Aston Villa |
LWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coventry vs Aston Villa head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Coventry vs Aston Villa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.2%, draw 26.2%, away 43.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.18 |
| 1xBet | 3.16 | 3.70 | 2.19 |
| 888Sport | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.18 | 3.70 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 3.13 | 3.82 | 2.18 |
| SBO | 2.82 | 3.26 | 2.04 |
| Unibet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .