Garuda Lions
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League Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

Chelsea vs Leeds

6 – 3 Full time

23′T. Muharemovic
45′Reggie Watson
46′R. WatsonR. James
46′M. GustoM. Rogers
46′J. GittensC. Palmer
46′EstêvãoP. Neto
48′B. Aaronson
53′C. Palmer
55′C. Palmer
60′P. Neto
65′D. Welbeck
66′D. JamesA. Stach
66′L. NmechaD. Calvert-Lewin
67′S. LongstaffA. Tanaka
67′B. AaronsonN. Okafor
75′D. Calvert-Lewin
76′L. ColwillW. Fofana
78′M. BardG. Gudmundsson
80′V. Barco
90′D. Welbeck

Stamford Bridge, LondonReferee: Jarred Gillett, Australia

Chelsea 55%
Draw 22%
Leeds 22%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 18
8 Shots on target 6
49 Possession % 51
3 Corners 5
6 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 2
392 Accurate passes 399

Chelsea vs Leeds overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chelsea vs Leeds

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChelseaDrawLeeds
Model32.4%25.4%42.2%
Market62.8%21.4%15.8%
Final55.2%22.4%22.4%
Edge-30.4%+4.0%+26.4%

Confidence: High

Why Chelsea

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chelsea ↓ / Leeds → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 11% 9% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Chelsea and Leeds expected goals

Chelsea 1.48
Leeds 1.71

Total expected goals: 3.19

Chelsea and Leeds attack and defence ratings

Chelsea

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Leeds

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chelsea vs Leeds: result vs prediction

Chelsea 6 – 3 Leeds

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

League Cup

Before and after this match

Chelsea vs Leeds markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Chelsea 55.2% 1.81 -30.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.7% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.3% 1.56 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.6% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.6% 1.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chelsea55.2%
Draw22.4%
Leeds22.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%
Both teams to scoreYes64.3%
No35.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.6%
12 (either side)77.6%
X2 (draw or away)44.8%
Handicap -1Chelsea win15.6%
Push (exactly one goal)16.8%
Loss67.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
1-28.9%
2-17.7%

Chelsea vs Leeds stats

Chelsea and Leeds recent form

newest first
Chelsea LWWWLW
Leeds DDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chelsea vs Leeds head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Chelsea wins 2Draws 2Leeds wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26ChelseaLeedsEngland FA Cup1-0
2026-02-10ChelseaLeedsPremier League2-2
2025-12-03LeedsChelseaPremier League3-1
2024-02-28ChelseaLeedsFA Cup3-2
2023-03-04ChelseaLeedsPremier League1-0
2022-08-21LeedsChelseaPremier League3-0
2022-05-11LeedsChelseaPremier League0-3
2021-12-11ChelseaLeedsPremier League3-2
2021-03-13LeedsChelseaPremier League0-0
2020-12-05ChelseaLeedsPremier League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chelsea vs Leeds odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.8%, draw 21.4%, away 15.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.49 4.30 6.00
1xBet 1.55 4.55 6.10
888Sport 1.44 4.00 5.50
Bet365 1.48 4.20 6.25
BetVictor 1.50 4.50 6.00
Betano 1.53 4.55 6.50
Betfair 1.47 4.33 5.50
Dafabet 1.52 4.70 6.00
Marathonbet 1.53 4.50 6.35
Pinnacle 1.52 4.59 6.14
SBO 1.44 3.94 4.94
Superbet 1.51 4.60 5.75
Unibet 1.52 4.30 5.50
William Hill 1.50 4.00 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▼ -0.15
X 4.42 ▲ +0.49
2 6.00 ▲ +1.28

10 snapshots recorded, from .