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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 4

Leeds vs Newcastle United

4 – 1 Full time

19′Nico GonzálezSean Steur
32′Lewis Miley
34′Jayden Bogle
44′Dominic Calvert-Lewin
45′Dominic Calvert-Lewin
54′Jacob Murphy
57′Jacob MurphyBazoumana Touré
58′Matias Fernandez-PardoJoe Willock
58′Amar DedićValentino Livramento
59′Noah Okafor
72′Noah OkaforHarry Wilson
72′Ao TanakaBrenden Aaronson
72′Gabriel GudmundssonMelvin Bard
78′Dominic Calvert-LewinLukas Nmecha
80′Lewis MileyAladji Bamba
83′Jayden BogleDaniel James
88′Anton StachSean Longstaff
90′Bazoumana Touré
90′Valentino Livramento

Elland Road, LeedsReferee: Michael Salisbury, England

Leeds 44%
Draw 26%
Newcastle United 30%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 5
51 Possession % 49
5 Corners 5
8 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 3
4 Saves 3
368 Accurate passes 357

Leeds vs Newcastle United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Leeds vs Newcastle United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLeedsDrawNewcastle United
Model51.7%21.6%26.7%
Market41.9%27.6%30.5%
Final44.4%26.1%29.6%
Edge+9.7%-5.9%-3.8%

Confidence: High

Why Leeds

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.71.
  • The market prices Leeds below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Leeds ↓ / Newcastle Unit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 6% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 7% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 77%
No goals 3%

Leeds and Newcastle United expected goals

Leeds 2.26
Newcastle United 1.71

Total expected goals: 3.96

Leeds and Newcastle United attack and defence ratings

Leeds

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Newcastle United

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Leeds vs Newcastle United: result vs prediction

Leeds 4 – 1 Newcastle United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Leeds vs Newcastle United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leeds 44.4% 2.25 +9.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 77.3% 1.29 — —
Both teams to score Yes 75.2% 1.33 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.3% 2.07 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Leeds44.4%
Draw26.1%
Newcastle United29.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577.3%
Under 2.522.7%
Both teams to scoreYes75.2%
No24.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.4%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)55.6%
Handicap -1Leeds win32.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.9%
Loss48.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.1%
1-17.9%
2-26.9%

Leeds vs Newcastle United stats

Leeds and Newcastle United recent form

newest first
Leeds LDDWWL
Newcastle United WDWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Leeds vs Newcastle United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Leeds wins 5Draws 3Newcastle United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-07Newcastle UnitedLeedsPremier League4-3
2025-08-30LeedsNewcastle UnitedPremier League0-0
2023-05-13LeedsNewcastle UnitedPremier League2-2
2022-12-31Newcastle UnitedLeedsPremier League0-0
2022-01-22LeedsNewcastle UnitedPremier League0-1
2021-09-17Newcastle UnitedLeedsPremier League1-1
2021-01-26Newcastle UnitedLeedsPremier League1-2
2020-12-16LeedsNewcastle UnitedPremier League5-2
2017-04-14Newcastle UnitedLeedsChampionship1-1
2016-11-20LeedsNewcastle UnitedChampionship0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Leeds vs Newcastle United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 27.6%, away 31.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.44 3.45 2.70
1xBet 2.36 3.58 3.21
888Sport 2.38 3.30 2.80
Bet365 2.20 3.50 3.10
BetVictor 2.25 3.60 3.00
Betano 2.25 3.40 3.20
Betfair 2.30 3.40 3.20
Dafabet 2.45 3.50 2.90
Marathonbet 2.32 3.52 3.16
Pinnacle 2.30 3.51 3.25
SBO 2.32 3.10 2.64
Unibet 2.38 3.45 2.95
William Hill 2.20 3.30 3.10
winamax_fr 2.40 3.40 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▲ +0.05
X 3.50 ▲ +0.30
2 3.16 ▲ +0.71

28 snapshots recorded, from .