Millwall
vs
Newcastle United
0 – 1 Full time
| 46′ | A. DedicV. Livramento | ||
| 62′ | Z. LovelaceT. Arconte | ||
| 62′ | R. EsseY. Issoufou | ||
| 66′ | Y. WissaM. Fernandez-Pardo | ||
| 66′ | J. MurphyA. Elanga | ||
| 67′ | Jenson Metcalfe | ||
| 69′ | Jacob Ramsey | ||
| 81′ | J. Willock | ||
| 83′ | J. RamseyL. Miley | ||
| 87′ | D. KellyA. Massey | ||
| 87′ | L. DykesR. Anderson | ||
| 88′ | J. Osei-TutuT. Parkes | ||
| 90′ | Alfie Massey | ||
| 90′ | J. WillockS. Steur |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 25 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 37 | Possession % | 63 |
| 1 | Corners | 15 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 204 | Accurate passes | 393 |
Millwall vs Newcastle United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millwall vs Newcastle United
| Probability | Millwall | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 24.6% | 27.6% |
| Market | 15.6% | 20.7% | 63.7% |
| Final | 23.6% | 21.7% | 54.7% |
| Edge | +32.1% | +3.9% | -36.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Millwall and Newcastle United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Millwall and Newcastle United attack and defence ratings
Millwall
Newcastle United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Millwall vs Newcastle United: result vs prediction
Millwall 0 – 1 Newcastle United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Millwall vs Newcastle United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 54.7% | 1.83 | -36.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 23.6% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Newcastle United | 54.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.1% |
| No | 35.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win | 12.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.7% | |
| Loss | 73.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Millwall vs Newcastle United stats
Millwall and Newcastle United recent form
| Millwall |
WLLWWW |
| Newcastle United |
DWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millwall vs Newcastle United head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Millwall vs Newcastle United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.6%, draw 20.7%, away 63.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 5.60 | 4.20 | 1.54 |
| 1xBet | 6.50 | 4.65 | 1.50 |
| 888Sport | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.36 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.45 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 6.60 | 4.65 | 1.52 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 6.20 | 4.70 | 1.50 |
| Marathonbet | 6.45 | 4.60 | 1.50 |
| Pinnacle | 6.36 | 4.66 | 1.49 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 3.89 | 1.44 |
| Superbet | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.49 |
| Unibet | 6.10 | 4.35 | 1.47 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .