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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

2 – 2 Full time

9′M. Tavernier
28′Anthony Elanga
35′M. Thiaw
37′H. Barnes
57′Yoane Wissa
63′L. MileyJ. Ramsey
63′J. WillockM. Fernandez-Pardo
66′Justin Kluivert
76′T. AdamsL. Cook
76′J. KluivertD. Brooks
77′NicoS. Steur
77′A. ElangaJ. Murphy
87′Adrien Truffert
88′J. Ramsey
89′M. TavernierD. Jebbison
89′RayanB. Gannon-Doak
90′Adam Smith
90′L. HallV. Livramento
90′A. ScottR. Christie

St. James' Park, NewcastleReferee: Robert Jones, England

Newcastle United 44%
Draw 25%
Bournemouth 31%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 5
58 Possession % 42
4 Corners 3
19 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 1
4 Saves 0
377 Accurate passes 256

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewcastle UnitedDrawBournemouth
Model40.2%22.4%37.4%
Market45.8%25.6%28.7%
Final44.4%24.8%30.8%
Edge-5.6%-3.1%+8.7%

Confidence: High

Why Newcastle United

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newcastle Unit ↓ / Bournemouth → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 7% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 4% 3 5% 5% 4+ 4% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 3%

Newcastle United and Bournemouth expected goals

Newcastle United 2.00
Bournemouth 2.02

Total expected goals: 4.02

Newcastle United and Bournemouth attack and defence ratings

Newcastle United

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.39 +39%

Bournemouth

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth: result vs prediction

Newcastle United 2 – 2 Bournemouth

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Newcastle United 44.4% 2.25 -5.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 77.9% 1.28 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.1% 1.30 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.8% 1.67 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newcastle United44.4%
Draw24.8%
Bournemouth30.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577.9%
Under 2.522.1%
Both teams to scoreYes77.1%
No22.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.2%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)55.6%
Handicap -1Newcastle United win23.2%
Push (exactly one goal)17.0%
Loss59.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.9%
2-27.3%
2-17.2%

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth stats

Newcastle United and Bournemouth recent form

newest first
Newcastle United WWDLWD
Bournemouth DLDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Newcastle United wins 6Draws 3Bournemouth wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18Newcastle UnitedBournemouthPremier League1-2
2026-01-10Newcastle UnitedBournemouthEngland FA Cup2-2
2025-09-21BournemouthNewcastle UnitedPremier League0-0
2025-01-18Newcastle UnitedBournemouthPremier League1-4
2024-08-25BournemouthNewcastle UnitedPremier League1-1
2024-02-17Newcastle UnitedBournemouthPremier League2-2
2023-11-11BournemouthNewcastle UnitedPremier League2-0
2023-02-11BournemouthNewcastle UnitedPremier League1-1
2022-12-20Newcastle UnitedBournemouthLeague Cup1-0
2022-09-17Newcastle UnitedBournemouthPremier League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.0%, draw 26.0%, away 29.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.10 3.65 3.15
1xBet 2.15 3.80 3.48
Bet365 2.10 3.60 3.30
BetVictor 2.05 3.80 3.25
Betano 2.15 3.65 3.25
Betfair 2.10 3.60 3.40
Dafabet 2.17 3.70 3.25
Marathonbet 2.12 3.74 3.42
Pinnacle 2.10 3.78 3.41
SBO 2.12 3.29 2.81
Superbet 2.15 3.65 3.30
Unibet 2.10 3.65 3.25
William Hill 2.05 3.50 3.30
onexbet 2.46 3.81 2.89

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▼ -0.36
X 3.76 ▼ -0.05
2 3.35 ▲ +0.46

23 snapshots recorded, from .