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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 2

Tottenham vs Newcastle United

0 – 2 Full time

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, LondonReferee: Peter Bankes, England

Tottenham 48%
Draw 24%
Newcastle United 29%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Tottenham vs Newcastle United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tottenham vs Newcastle United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTottenhamDrawNewcastle United
Model65.2%17.2%17.6%
Market41.6%25.9%32.5%
Final47.5%23.7%28.7%
Edge+23.6%-8.7%-14.9%

Confidence: High

Why Tottenham

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 1.63.
  • The market prices Tottenham below the model: +23.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tottenham ↓ / Newcastle Unit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 7% 6% 3 7% 6% 4+ 7% 11% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 84%
No goals 2%

Tottenham and Newcastle United expected goals

Tottenham 2.87
Newcastle United 1.63

Total expected goals: 4.50

Tottenham and Newcastle United attack and defence ratings

Tottenham

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Newcastle United

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.47 +47%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tottenham vs Newcastle United: result vs prediction

Tottenham 0 – 2 Newcastle United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Tottenham vs Newcastle United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tottenham 47.5% 2.10 +23.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 84.3% 1.19 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.1% 1.30 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Tottenham win 46.6% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tottenham47.5%
Draw23.7%
Newcastle United28.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584.3%
Under 2.515.7%
Both teams to scoreYes77.1%
No22.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.3%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)52.5%
Handicap -1Tottenham win46.6%
Push (exactly one goal)18.2%
Loss35.2%
Correct score (top 3)3-17.2%
2-17.1%
3-25.8%

Tottenham vs Newcastle United stats

Tottenham and Newcastle United recent form

newest first
Tottenham WLWLDW
Newcastle United WDLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tottenham vs Newcastle United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Tottenham wins 3Draws 6Newcastle United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-10TottenhamNewcastle UnitedPremier League1-2
2025-12-02Newcastle UnitedTottenhamPremier League2-2
2025-10-29Newcastle UnitedTottenhamLeague Cup2-0
2025-08-03TottenhamNewcastle UnitedFriendlies Clubs1-1
2025-01-04TottenhamNewcastle UnitedPremier League1-2
2024-09-01Newcastle UnitedTottenhamPremier League2-1
2024-05-22Newcastle UnitedTottenhamFriendlies Clubs1-1
2024-04-13Newcastle UnitedTottenhamPremier League4-0
2023-12-10TottenhamNewcastle UnitedPremier League4-1
2023-04-23Newcastle UnitedTottenhamPremier League6-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tottenham vs Newcastle United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.6%, draw 25.9%, away 32.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.36 3.81 3.04
Bet365 2.25 3.75 2.90
BetVictor 2.25 3.60 2.80
Betano 2.25 3.75 2.95
Betfair 2.30 3.70 2.90
Dafabet 2.33 3.70 2.95
Marathonbet 2.32 3.75 2.99
Pinnacle 2.31 3.82 2.95
SBO 2.21 3.26 2.70
Superbet 2.32 3.70 2.95
Unibet 2.20 3.70 3.10
William Hill 2.30 3.50 2.90
onexbet 2.17 3.69 3.51

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▲ +0.15
X 3.70 —
2 2.95 ▼ -0.34

17 snapshots recorded, from .