Chelsea
vs
Brighton
4 – 3 Full time
Chelsea vs Brighton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chelsea vs Brighton
| Probability | Chelsea | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.4% | 27.4% | 42.2% |
| Market | 49.5% | 25.2% | 25.2% |
| Final | 44.8% | 25.8% | 29.5% |
| Edge | -19.1% | +2.2% | +16.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chelsea and Brighton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Chelsea and Brighton attack and defence ratings
Chelsea
Brighton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Chelsea vs Brighton: result vs prediction
Chelsea 4 – 3 Brighton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Crystal Palace v Manchester City — match page
- Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats
- Bournemouth vs Everton
- Coventry v Hull City — match page
- Tottenham vs Newcastle United — team news & stats
- Leeds v Brentford — match page
- Sunderland vs Fulham — team news & stats
- Manchester United vs Ipswich
Before and after this match
Chelsea vs Brighton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 44.8% | 2.23 | -19.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 44.8% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Brighton | 29.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win | 11.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.2% | |
| Loss | 72.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
Chelsea vs Brighton stats
Chelsea vs Brighton head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Brighton | Chelsea | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Chelsea | Brighton | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2025-02-14 | Brighton | Chelsea | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-08 | Brighton | Chelsea | England FA Cup | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Chelsea | Brighton | Premier League | 4-2 |
| 2024-05-15 | Brighton | Chelsea | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-03 | Chelsea | Brighton | Premier League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chelsea vs Brighton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 25.3%, away 25.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.96 | 3.86 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.94 | 3.75 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.34 | 3.50 |
| Unibet | 1.89 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| onexbet | 2.06 | 3.84 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .