Arsenal
vs
Chelsea
2 – 1 Full time
| 2′ | M. Rogers | ||
| 14′ | João Pedro | ||
| 25′ | K. Havertz | ||
| 45′ | Cole Palmer | ||
| 50′ | M. Odegaard | ||
| 58′ | Christos Tzolis | ||
| 58′ | Maxence Lacroix | ||
| 60′ | J. HatoP. Chavarria | ||
| 60′ | R. LaviaM. Gusto | ||
| 66′ | R. CalafioriP. Hincapie | ||
| 67′ | M. Lewis-SkellyM. Zubimendi | ||
| 77′ | M. OdegaardM. Merino | ||
| 78′ | K. HavertzV. Gyokeres | ||
| 81′ | P. NetoEstêvão | ||
| 83′ | Morgan Rogers | ||
| 87′ | M. RogersD. Welbeck | ||
| 90′ | Mikel Merino | ||
| 90′ | B. SakaN. Madueke |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 8 |
| 390 | Accurate passes | 314 |
Arsenal vs Chelsea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal vs Chelsea
| Probability | Arsenal | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.7% | 24.8% | 17.4% |
| Market | 56.0% | 24.9% | 19.1% |
| Final | 56.5% | 24.9% | 18.7% |
| Edge | +1.7% | -0.1% | -1.6% |
Why Arsenal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arsenal and Chelsea expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Arsenal and Chelsea attack and defence ratings
Arsenal
Chelsea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: result vs prediction
Arsenal 2 – 1 Chelsea
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arsenal vs Chelsea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 56.5% | 1.77 | +1.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 56.5% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Chelsea | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Arsenal vs Chelsea stats
Arsenal vs Chelsea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Arsenal | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-03 | Arsenal | Chelsea | League Cup | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Chelsea | Arsenal | League Cup | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-30 | Chelsea | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Arsenal | Chelsea | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Chelsea | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-23 | Arsenal | Chelsea | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Chelsea | Arsenal | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2023-05-02 | Arsenal | Chelsea | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Chelsea | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arsenal vs Chelsea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 25.0%, away 19.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.94 | 5.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 3.85 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.88 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 3.82 | 5.11 |
| SBO | 1.66 | 3.44 | 4.26 |
| Superbet | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Unibet | 1.70 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| mybookieag | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .