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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 2

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

0 – 1 Full time

29′C. Tzolis
45′C. TzolisE. Eze
59′B. Saka
71′M. Lewis-SkellyBruno Guimarães
71′M. ØdegaardMikel Merino
71′N. JacksonT. Abraham
71′George HemmingsAlysson Edward
78′M. CashA. Wan-Bissaka
78′R. BarkleyA. Garnacho
79′Cristhian MosqueraE. Konsa
80′Alysson Edward
81′J. McGinn
85′D. RiceMartín Zubimendi
90′I. Maatsen

Villa Park, BirminghamReferee: Jarred Gillett, Australia

Aston Villa 22%
Draw 23%
Arsenal 55%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 7
0 Shots on target 2
39 Possession % 61
2 Corners 4
17 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 8
1 Saves 0
273 Accurate passes 465

Aston Villa vs Arsenal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Aston Villa vs Arsenal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAston VillaDrawArsenal
Model40.5%27.6%31.9%
Market15.2%22.0%62.8%
Final21.6%23.4%55.0%
Edge+25.2%+5.6%-30.8%

Confidence: High

Why Arsenal

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Aston Villa ↓ / Arsenal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 13% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 7%

Aston Villa and Arsenal expected goals

Aston Villa 1.51
Arsenal 1.39

Total expected goals: 2.91

Aston Villa and Arsenal attack and defence ratings

Aston Villa

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Arsenal

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal: result vs prediction

Aston Villa 0 – 1 Arsenal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Aston Villa vs Arsenal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Arsenal 55.0% 1.82 -30.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.3% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.5% 1.62 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.4% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.1% 1.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Aston Villa21.6%
Draw23.4%
Arsenal55.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%
Both teams to scoreYes61.5%
No38.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.0%
12 (either side)76.6%
X2 (draw or away)78.4%
Handicap -1Arsenal win15.2%
Push (exactly one goal)16.7%
Loss68.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
2-18.9%
1-27.8%

Aston Villa vs Arsenal stats

Aston Villa and Arsenal recent form

newest first
Aston Villa LWWWDW
Arsenal WDWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Aston Villa wins 1Draws 6Arsenal wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-30ArsenalAston VillaPremier League4-1
2025-12-06Aston VillaArsenalPremier League2-1
2025-01-18ArsenalAston VillaPremier League2-2
2024-08-24Aston VillaArsenalPremier League0-2
2024-04-14ArsenalAston VillaPremier League0-2
2023-12-09Aston VillaArsenalPremier League1-0
2023-02-18Aston VillaArsenalPremier League2-4
2022-08-31ArsenalAston VillaPremier League2-1
2022-03-19Aston VillaArsenalPremier League0-1
2021-10-22ArsenalAston VillaPremier League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.4%, draw 22.1%, away 62.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.45 4.52 1.56
Bet365 6.00 4.33 1.53
BetVictor 6.50 4.33 1.50
Betano 6.50 4.30 1.57
Betfair 6.50 4.40 1.50
Dafabet 6.20 4.50 1.53
Marathonbet 6.50 4.45 1.53
Pinnacle 6.20 4.47 1.54
SBO 5.99 4.21 1.49
Superbet 5.85 4.45 1.54
Unibet 6.40 4.30 1.52
William Hill 5.80 4.00 1.53
betsson 5.00 3.70 1.72

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.30 ▲ +1.97
X 4.37 ▲ +0.65
2 1.53 ▼ -0.31

20 snapshots recorded, from .