Garuda Lions
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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 2

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

2 – 2 Full time

Anfield, LiverpoolReferee: Samuel Barrott, England

Liverpool 60%
Draw 22%
Nottingham Forest 18%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLiverpoolDrawNottingham Forest
Model52.6%24.1%23.3%
Market62.2%21.3%16.6%
Final59.8%22.0%18.3%
Edge-9.6%+2.8%+6.7%

Confidence: High

Why Liverpool

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.33.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Liverpool ↓ / Nottingham For → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 6% 2 7% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 5%

Liverpool and Nottingham Forest expected goals

Liverpool 1.94
Nottingham Forest 1.33

Total expected goals: 3.28

Liverpool and Nottingham Forest attack and defence ratings

Liverpool

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Nottingham Forest

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: result vs prediction

Liverpool 2 – 2 Nottingham Forest

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Liverpool 59.8% 1.67 -9.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.6% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.5% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.7% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.7% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Liverpool59.8%
Draw22.0%
Nottingham Forest18.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%
Both teams to scoreYes65.5%
No34.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.7%
12 (either side)78.0%
X2 (draw or away)40.2%
Handicap -1Liverpool win31.8%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss47.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.7%
2-19.5%
2-07.1%

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest stats

Liverpool and Nottingham Forest recent form

newest first
Liverpool DDLDLW
Nottingham Forest LLDLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5Liverpool wins 1Draws 3Nottingham Forest wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-22Nottingham ForestLiverpoolPremier League0-1
2025-11-22LiverpoolNottingham ForestPremier League0-3
2025-01-14Nottingham ForestLiverpoolPremier League1-1
2024-09-14LiverpoolNottingham ForestPremier League0-1
2024-03-02Nottingham ForestLiverpoolPremier League0-1
2023-10-29LiverpoolNottingham ForestPremier League3-0
2023-04-22LiverpoolNottingham ForestPremier League3-2
2022-10-22Nottingham ForestLiverpoolPremier League1-0
2022-03-20Nottingham ForestLiverpoolFA Cup0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.3%, draw 21.2%, away 16.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.58 4.62 6.09
Bet365 1.55 4.33 5.75
BetVictor 1.50 4.50 6.00
Betano 1.53 4.45 5.80
Betfair 1.50 4.50 6.00
Dafabet 1.56 4.50 5.60
Marathonbet 1.55 4.55 6.00
Pinnacle 1.55 4.57 5.71
SBO 1.42 4.13 5.61
Superbet 1.56 4.50 5.55
Unibet 1.52 4.35 6.25
William Hill 1.53 4.20 5.50
winamax_fr 1.39 4.20 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.54 ▲ +0.23
X 4.50 —
2 5.78 ▼ -0.12

13 snapshots recorded, from .