Garuda Lions
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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 1

Newcastle United vs Liverpool

2 – 2 Full time

St James' Park, NewcastleReferee: Stuart Attwell, England

Newcastle United 31%
Draw 24%
Liverpool 45%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Newcastle United vs Liverpool overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newcastle United vs Liverpool

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewcastle UnitedDrawLiverpool
Model47.1%22.8%30.1%
Market25.4%25.0%49.5%
Final30.8%24.5%44.7%
Edge+21.7%-2.2%-19.4%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newcastle Unit ↓ / Liverpool → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Newcastle United and Liverpool expected goals

Newcastle United 2.08
Liverpool 1.73

Total expected goals: 3.80

Newcastle United and Liverpool attack and defence ratings

Newcastle United

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.42 +42%

Liverpool

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool: result vs prediction

Newcastle United 2 – 2 Liverpool

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Newcastle United vs Liverpool markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Liverpool 44.7% 2.24 -19.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.9% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.2% 1.35 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.5% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.1% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newcastle United30.8%
Draw24.5%
Liverpool44.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.9%
Under 2.525.1%
Both teams to scoreYes74.2%
No25.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.3%
12 (either side)75.5%
X2 (draw or away)69.2%
Handicap -1Liverpool win15.3%
Push (exactly one goal)14.5%
Loss70.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.7%
2-18.2%
2-27.1%

Newcastle United vs Liverpool stats

Newcastle United and Liverpool recent form

newest first
Newcastle United LWDWLL
Liverpool DLDLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

0Newcastle United wins 1Draws 5Liverpool wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-31LiverpoolNewcastle UnitedPremier League4-1
2025-08-25Newcastle UnitedLiverpoolPremier League2-3
2025-02-26LiverpoolNewcastle UnitedPremier League2-0
2024-12-04Newcastle UnitedLiverpoolPremier League3-3
2024-01-01LiverpoolNewcastle UnitedPremier League4-2
2023-08-27Newcastle UnitedLiverpoolPremier League1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 24.6%, away 50.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.50 3.85 1.90
1xBet 3.94 4.11 1.93
888Sport 3.70 3.80 1.85
Bet365 4.00 3.70 1.90
BetVictor 3.70 4.00 1.87
Betano 3.80 3.85 1.90
Betfair 3.90 3.90 1.87
Dafabet 3.80 3.95 1.91
Marathonbet 3.88 4.05 1.90
Pinnacle 3.89 3.97 1.90
SBO 3.23 3.50 1.87
Superbet 3.85 3.90 1.90
Unibet 4.10 3.70 1.87
William Hill 3.70 3.80 1.85
pinnacle 3.82 3.88 1.96

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.82 ▲ +0.12
X 3.88 ▲ +0.08
2 1.96 ▲ +0.04

8 snapshots recorded, from .