Ipswich
vs
Sunderland
2 – 1 Full time
Ipswich vs Sunderland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ipswich vs Sunderland
| Probability | Ipswich | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.4% | 24.0% | 14.6% |
| Market | 34.3% | 29.4% | 36.2% |
| Final | 41.1% | 28.1% | 30.8% |
| Edge | +27.0% | -5.5% | -21.6% |
Why Ipswich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.89.
- The market prices Ipswich below the model: +27.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ipswich and Sunderland expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Ipswich and Sunderland attack and defence ratings
Ipswich
Sunderland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ipswich vs Sunderland: result vs prediction
Ipswich 2 – 1 Sunderland
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Arsenal vs Coventry
- Hull City v Manchester United — match page
- Everton vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats
- Nottingham Forest v Leeds — match page
- Brentford vs Tottenham — team news & stats
- Manchester City vs Bournemouth
- Brighton v Aston Villa — match page
- Newcastle United vs Liverpool — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Ipswich vs Sunderland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ipswich | 41.1% | 2.43 | +27.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ipswich win | 38.5% | 2.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ipswich | 41.1% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Sunderland | 30.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% |
| No | 47.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ipswich win | 38.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 38.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Ipswich vs Sunderland stats
Ipswich and Sunderland recent form
| Ipswich |
WDDWDL |
| Sunderland |
WWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ipswich vs Sunderland head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ipswich vs Sunderland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 29.4%, away 36.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.29 | 2.71 |
| 888Sport | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.15 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 3.24 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 2.86 | 3.26 | 2.66 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 3.08 | 2.42 |
| Superbet | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Unibet | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| pinnacle | 2.76 | 3.26 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .