Nottingham Forest
vs
Leeds
0 – 1 Full time
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
| Probability | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 26.1% | 37.0% |
| Market | 41.0% | 28.3% | 30.7% |
| Final | 40.0% | 27.7% | 32.3% |
| Edge | -4.0% | -2.2% | +6.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nottingham Forest and Leeds expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Nottingham Forest and Leeds attack and defence ratings
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: result vs prediction
Nottingham Forest 0 – 1 Leeds
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nottingham Forest | 40.0% | 2.50 | -4.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nottingham Forest | 40.0% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Leeds | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% |
| No | 33.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nottingham Forest win | 19.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds stats
Nottingham Forest and Leeds recent form
| Nottingham Forest |
DLDLWW |
| Leeds |
LWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Leeds | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Nottingham Forest | Leeds | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2023-07-27 | Nottingham Forest | Leeds | Friendlies Clubs | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-04 | Leeds | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-05 | Nottingham Forest | Leeds | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2020-02-08 | Nottingham Forest | Leeds | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2019-08-10 | Leeds | Nottingham Forest | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2019-01-01 | Nottingham Forest | Leeds | Championship | 4-2 |
| 2018-10-27 | Leeds | Nottingham Forest | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 28.5%, away 30.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.28 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.44 | 3.25 |
| 888Sport | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 3.38 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.38 | 3.19 |
| SBO | 2.28 | 3.05 | 2.76 |
| Superbet | 2.37 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Unibet | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.36 | 3.13 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .