Garuda Lions
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League Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

0 – 2 Full time

City Ground, NottinghamReferee: Andrew Kitchen, England

Nottingham Forest 39%
Draw 28%
Leeds 33%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNottingham ForestDrawLeeds
Model27.7%26.1%46.2%
Market42.8%28.2%29.0%
Final39.0%27.7%33.3%
Edge-15.1%-2.1%+17.2%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Nottingham For ↓ / Leeds → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 8% 1 12% 10% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Nottingham Forest and Leeds expected goals

Nottingham Forest 1.21
Leeds 1.72

Total expected goals: 2.93

Nottingham Forest and Leeds attack and defence ratings

Nottingham Forest

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Leeds

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: result vs prediction

Nottingham Forest 0 – 2 Leeds

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

League Cup

Before and after this match

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nottingham Forest 39.0% 2.56 -15.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.8% 1.76 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.8% 1.67 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.3% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.2% 1.35 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Nottingham Forest39.0%
Draw27.7%
Leeds33.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%
Both teams to scoreYes59.8%
No40.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.7%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)61.0%
Handicap -1Nottingham Forest win11.0%
Push (exactly one goal)14.9%
Loss74.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
1-29.4%
0-17.6%

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds stats

Nottingham Forest and Leeds recent form

newest first
Nottingham Forest LDLDLW
Leeds WLWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Nottingham Forest wins 2Draws 4Leeds wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-22Nottingham ForestLeedsPremier League0-1
2026-02-06LeedsNottingham ForestPremier League3-1
2025-11-09Nottingham ForestLeedsPremier League3-1
2023-07-27Nottingham ForestLeedsFriendlies Clubs0-2
2023-04-04LeedsNottingham ForestPremier League2-1
2023-02-05Nottingham ForestLeedsPremier League1-0
2020-02-08Nottingham ForestLeedsChampionship2-0
2019-08-10LeedsNottingham ForestChampionship1-1
2019-01-01Nottingham ForestLeedsChampionship4-2
2018-10-27LeedsNottingham ForestChampionship1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 28.2%, away 29.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.40 3.40 2.80
1xBet 2.26 3.38 3.36
Bet365 2.20 3.30 3.25
BetVictor 2.20 3.40 3.25
Betano 2.12 3.30 3.35
Betfair 2.15 3.25 3.25
Dafabet 2.22 3.55 3.25
Marathonbet 2.24 3.38 3.38
Pinnacle 2.31 3.34 3.26
SBO 2.12 3.14 3.12
Superbet 2.17 3.30 3.30
Unibet 2.14 3.35 3.30
William Hill 2.10 3.10 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▲ +0.01
X 3.34 ▼ -0.11
2 3.25 ▲ +0.06

9 snapshots recorded, from .